Record Profits, Unresolved Gas Risk: First Pacific's 2025 Balancing Act

A diversified Asian holdco posts another record year but faces a fresh gas-supply headwind and an increasingly active portfolio-option calendar.

0142.HK · Earnings Call · 2026-03-31

Another record year, but the tone shifts forward

Recurring profit, as I say, it's up a good double-digit, 10% to $740 million, up from about $673 million in 2024.
John Ryan, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-03-31

First Pacific's 2025 results continue the seven-year streak of recurring profit growth. Full-year distribution reached a record HKD $0.27 per share, and the dividend was framed as broadly in line with earnings momentum. The growth engine remains the Philippine infrastructure bundle—Metro Pacific's power, water, and tolls—while Indofood's consumer-defensive portfolio keeps providing a stable floor. Yet on the earnings call, management's energy quickly turned to two forward-looking issues: PacificLight's exposure to a Middle East-driven gas disruption and the funding of its next power plant.

PacificLight: the new risk on the table

“...there is some impact in terms of some of the flow in terms of the LNG that's supplied into Singapore, some of the disruption. It's a relatively small portion, a minority. And I would say that at least for the next month plus, there's sufficient supply.” — Stanley Yang, Executive / Management · 2026-03-31 This is a meaningful shift from prior quarters. A year ago, management highlighted PacificLight's multi-year retail contracts and a structurally improved gas price position. Now the call explicitly acknowledges that if the Middle East conflict persists, Singapore's aggregate gas supply could tighten, pressuring the electricity price dynamics that have driven PLP's profits. The company is pursuing alternate arrangements, but visibility is short—"the next couple of months will be critical," as Stanley Yang put it. At the same time, the 670 MW CCGT project remains on track for 2029, but it demands equity. Earlier guidance pegged First Pacific's share at roughly $150–$200 million, spread over several years. That capital need, layered on the dividend commitment, is precisely what is shaping the holdco's balance-sheet decisions.

Dividends, refinancing, and the bond market calculus

“...we are paying altogether about $150 million plus... more than half of the so-called gross dividend line that we are returning to the shareholders even without including the so-called special distribution.” — Hon Pong Ng, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-03-31 Joseph Ng defended the dividend math, noting that aggregate growth (including the special) is roughly 10%, matching recurring earnings growth. He also underscored the reinvestment tug-of-war: returning >70% of free cash while retaining a little for PLP's equity call. That discipline is welcome, but it leaves little room for buybacks—a recurring analyst hope. On refinancing, the near-term overhang is removed: the January 2026 bank loan has been refinanced, leaving only the $350 million bond due in September 2027. “We finished the refinancing of the January 2026 bank loan... we have 18 months to go, but we should get ourselves ready probably when we get into the second half of this year.” — Hon Pong Ng, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-03-31 With markets volatile, management prefers the bond market for tenor, but is keeping options open.

The Maya optionality: a quiet pulse in the portfolio

“...whether this is the year that at this time, a listing could be done, I think we would -- management and the shareholders are always reviewing the strategic options.” — Stanley Yang, Executive / Management · 2026-03-31 Maya's improving profitability—now a profitable fintech with a banking license—has put an IPO back on the table. This echoes sentiments from the August 2025 call: “...we think that based on what we're seeing that this trend is definitely a positive for the group... but certainly not this year...” — Stanley H. Yang, Executive Director of MPIC (subsidiary of First Pacific) · 2025-08-28 A year later, Stanley Yang pointed to PayPay's successful listing as evidence that the market can absorb such deals. Timing, however, remains the pivot: Maya is still smaller and needs a few more quarters of runway. Similarly, MPTC's private placement is progressing, focused on deleveraging after its Trans-Java expansion. These are not imminent catalysts, but they signal a more active capital-recycling posture—a theme that fits the broader regional narrative of unlocking asset value.

Indofood and the defensive core

Indofood's single-digit core profit growth was modest, but management struck a confident tone on 2026, citing ample wheat supply and stable CPO prices. Chris Young noted that dividend discussions with Indofood would be constructive, but the context was cautious: “...normally, as I think you're aware, it's a discussion with the management there at Indofood... the recurring profit growth last year for Indofood was 1%... there is a bit of uncertainty.” — Christopher Young, Executive Director · 2026-03-31 The combination of a strong, diversified cash flow base and a handful of emerging operational and strategic risks makes First Pacific a classic conglomerate watch: the record is real, but the next leg of growth is not guaranteed. The market will keep a close eye on the gas situation in Singapore and the progress of Maya's listing path.