Rakuten's AI Super Agent and FinTech Reorg Signal a New Era
A Watershed Quarter
Rakuten Group, Inc. (4755.T) delivered a quarter that marks a clear inflection point. “In terms of the net income, we were able to achieve positive by amount of JPY 227.2 billion,” said CEO Hiroshi Mikitani, the first positive net profit in six years since Q2 2020. The result was boosted by a one-time tax benefit from the sale of shares, but the underlying momentum is real: consolidated revenue hit a record ¥665.5 billion (+11.6% YoY), and non-GAAP operating income nearly doubled to ¥42 billion. The company is now telling a story of Fintech business reorganization and Super Agent AI capabilities — a sharp departure from the prior narrative of mobile subscriber growth and Open RAN adoption.
The FinTech Pivot: Integration over Fragmentation
The most consequential strategic shift is the plan to consolidate Rakuten Bank, Rakuten Securities, and Rakuten Card under a single entity, effective October 1. This is not just a structural exercise; management expects synergies of more than ¥85 billion by March 2030, driven by cross-selling and operational efficiencies. CFO Eiichi Kaga stressed that the reorganization is not a fundraising tool: “while the transaction does require a certain capital contribution in order to carry out the reorganization, I would like to reiterate that we currently have no intention of selling shares of the bank.” The rationale is to capitalize on the group's massive customer base — 18.46 million bank accounts, 14.39 million securities accounts, and a card base that generates ¥27.7 trillion in shopping GTV. The Rakuten ecosystem is the moat, and the reorganization is designed to deepen it.
AI Super Agent: From Chat to Commerce
The other pillar of the new strategy is a push into AI agents that go beyond simple chatbots. Chief AI and Data Officer Ting Cai outlined a three-pronged approach: engage, expand, and differentiate. The company launched the Super Agent at its Rakuten AI Optimism Conference, a cross-service agent that can not only chat but also complete transactions, from travel bookings to e-commerce purchases. In a demo, an AI shop manager guided a customer through a skincare purchase, handling questions and finalizing the order — a level of end-to-end automation that is rare among internet retailers. Cai said, “AI presents a unique opportunity to amplify that synergy by attracting new users at lower cost, increasing cross-use, and bring more value to our users and the businesses.” The early results are concrete: an A/B test on Rakuten Ichiba showed a 0.87% lift in GMS, equivalent to an annualized ¥12.8 billion uplift, and AI-assisted travel bookings see 13% higher order values. This is a company-specific application of a broader AI trend, but the integration with the ecosystem gives it a durable edge.
Mobile: The Long Game Pays Off
While the FinTech and AI initiatives dominate the narrative, the mobile business is finally showing signs of stabilization. Churn fell to 1.3%, ARPU is slowly rising, and data usage per user continues to grow. The company has largely completed its 5G rollout and is now focusing on value-added services like AI and advertising. It also announced a ¥248 billion investment in low-Earth orbit satellite communications as part of a government-backed initiative. This contrasts with the prior years' emphasis on network coverage and subscriber acquisition, as evidenced by earlier calls where Mikitani discussed the “family program” and “referral campaign” to drive subscriber growth. The improvement is reflected in the pre-marketing cash flow turning positive at ¥28 billion, excluding the impact of new acquisitions.
A Changing of the Guard
This quarter's focus on AI agents and FinTech integration marks a clear departure from the themes that dominated Rakuten's discourse just two years ago. In 2024, the conversation revolved around “Open RAN” — Unidentified Company Representative, Company Representative · 2024-05-16 and the decision to “open license our source code” to disrupt the telecom industry. The company also discussed “the family plan and reaching younger users” — Hiroshi Mikitani, CEO · 2024-02-14 through aggressive mobile pricing. Today, those topics have receded to the background, replaced by Cross use and AI agents. The shift is not just rhetorical; it reflects a strategic pivot from heavy capex in mobile to monetizing the existing ecosystem through financial synergies and AI-powered services.
AI presents a unique opportunity to amplify that synergy by attracting new users at lower cost, increasing cross-use, and bring more value to our users and the businesses.
The market has yet to fully price in this transformation. The stock's valuation remains undemanding relative to the improving fundamentals, and the company's credit spreads have tightened across maturities, a sign that investors are gaining confidence. With net income finally positive and a clear roadmap for synergies, Rakuten is no longer just a conglomerate burdened by mobile losses; it is becoming a data-driven commerce and finance powerhouse. Whether the Rakuten travel and other segments can sustain their growth, and whether the AI agents translate into tangible returns, will be the key test in the coming quarters.