Acadian Timber's Maine Rebuild and Multi-Front Optionality
Q2 2026: A Volumes Dip, A Price Lift
Acadian Timber's second-quarter results were a tale of two forces: volumes fell sharply on elevated customer inventories and seasonal conditions, but selling prices jumped on stronger softwood markets and cost pass-throughs like fuel surcharges and longer hauling distances. Revenue came in at $14.6 million, down from $17.1 million a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA slipped to $1.3 million from $2.4 million. Net income of $1.3 million ($0.07 per share) versus $2.7 million ($0.15) in Q2 2025 reflects the pullback in volumes and higher interest and tax expenses, partially offset by a noncash fair value gain.
The volume story was most acute in New Brunswick, where freehold sales fell 38% year over year, and in Maine, down 31%. The weighted average selling price, excluding biomass, rose 19% in New Brunswick and 16% in Maine, cushioning the blow. But the real story for the quarter — and for the rest of 2026 — is the restructuring of Maine's internal harvesting operations.
Maine: From Chase Volume to Chase Cost
We scaled down the operations to the most productive group of operators and equipment, and then improved the data flow from our equipment in order to address production bottlenecks.
That quote from interim CEO Malcolm Cockwell captures a stark strategic shift. In early 2025, Acadian moved to internal harvesting to overcome tight contractor capacity and escalating costs. But through 2025, results were poor. As Cockwell admitted, "The concept was good, but the results were poor throughout 2025." The new approach, implemented over Q2, abandons the old volume-first mantra in favor of reducing cost per cubic meter. The company has trimmed the fleet to the most productive operators, deployed optimization software, and refined block selection to match crew capabilities with terrain. The results are showing: cost of sales per cubic meter produced in Maine fell 7% year over year, and Maine's adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to -$400,000 from -$900,000.
This is a deliberate departure from the earlier plan. Just six months ago, then-CEO Adam Sheparski emphasized volume targets, saying “Most of our levers are internally generated through the internal logging operations.” — Adam Sheparski, President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-02-12 And a year earlier, he projected entering 2026 at full allowable cut of roughly 240,000 cubic meters, “we would like to enter 2026 at that level. So call that 240-ish thousand tons or cubic meters.” — Adam Sheparski · 2025-08-08 That full-capacity push has given way to a more surgical focus on unit economics — a recognition that operating a fixed-cost fleet at lower utilization while still burning fuel and labor is not the path to profitability.
Optionality: Renewable Leases, Real Estate, Carbon
Beyond the operational fix, management is nurturing a trio of longer-term value drivers. The quarter saw a new renewable energy option and lease agreement signed in New Brunswick — modest income now, but potential outsized returns later. Cockwell explained that “the economics get very favorable and into the 10x plus equivalent of the timber income” — Malcolm Cockwell, Chair and Interim President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-06 from those properties if the projects are developed. These renewable energy opportunities remain a quiet but meaningful part of the story.
Separately, the residential development project in Maine is progressing on schedule to be shovel-ready by year-end and revenue-generating in 2027. Cockwell said “we're seeing good support in the local community and with regulators.” — Malcolm Cockwell, Chair and Interim President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-06 These efforts are meant to build a steady EBITDA stream beyond the cyclical timber business.
On the carbon side, the next tranche of credits from the improved forest management project has slipped to H2 2026 because of the transition to ACR's updated protocol. Management believes the new protocol will enhance marketability, echoing Carbon credit sales from prior quarters but now with a clearer timeline.
Market Headwinds & Outlook
Still, the near-term tape remains soft. Customer roundwood inventories in New Brunswick have normalized, and sawlog demand should match harvesting capacity. But pricing may stay pressured until end-use markets improve. Pulpwood demand and pricing are expected to remain soft. Tariffs and duties continue to weigh on customers, and higher fuel costs raise everyone's operating costs. Cockwell noted that "we have not seen significant customer curtailments so far this year," but cautioned that these factors are likely to keep pressuring production levels.
The overall outlook for 2026 remains positive, with the Maine cost program expected to deliver stronger results through the balance of the year. With a small cap and a focused operational turnaround plus optionality from renewables, real estate, and carbon, Acadian is a name to watch for a recovery in 2027.