Allegro's Second Wind: International GMV Triples Its Growth Rate as China's Platforms Retreat

A guidance upgrade across every line — powered by a European regulatory tailwind and an AI flywheel that is finally showing up in the numbers.

ALE.WA · Earnings Call · 2026-09-17

A quarter that forced guidance up across the board

Allegro walked into its Q2 2026 print as a Polish marketplace growing high-single digits, still fighting a narrative that the Chinese platforms were eating its lunch. It walked out having lifted full-year guidance on every line. Group GMV growth accelerated to 14.4% year-on-year, revenue rose 16.1%, and the group's quarterly adjusted EBITDA crossed PLN 1 billion for the first time. In Poland, GMV grew 12% and EBITDA 11.3%; abroad, the Allegro International segment grew GMV 82.4% — with the marketplace-only line at 85%. "In Poland, our main business picked up speed with GMV growing by 12% year-on-year... Internationally, our business really took off, with GMV jumping by over 82% year-on-year," “CEO Marcin Kuśmierz told the call” — Marcin Kuśmierz, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-09-17. Active buyers crossed 20.9 million, with 5.3 million now outside Poland. The sharpest detail is what has happened since the quarter closed. "In the first 10 weeks of Q3, we have seen a further acceleration in the business, with the growth moving up to between 14% and 15% year-on-year," “CFO Jon Eastick said” — Jon Eastick, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-17, adding that international is now running "typically around 100% year-on-year" and the group at 17%–18%. Management now guides full-year group GMV of 13%–15%, revenue 14%–16% and adjusted EBITDA of PLN 3.9bn–4.1bn (13%–17% growth). That is a genuine name-in-motion, not a modest beat.

The Chinese retreat is a real tailwind — but not the only one

For two years, the bear case on Allegro was Chinese platforms and the traffic they hoovered up. That dynamic has flipped. The EU's EUR 3-per-parcel charge took effect on July 1, and the retreat is showing up in the data. "We think it was mid-single digits, sort of 5%, 6% type of area between those players... What really matters is this is long overdue, this regulatory change, and it levels up the playing field, and fair competition we have no problem with,"

Eastick said
Jon Eastick, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-17

. Management also flagged share of voice getting cheaper, with cost per click falling as the competition eased. This was foreshadowed. Back in March 2025, on the same call where analysts pressed hardest, Roy Perticucci argued the entrants were "testing the levels of enforcement" and predicted they would eventually "top out."

TEMU, in terms of traffic, has addressed, I think, shopping style that's relatively new which is shopping for entertainment... And I think that is going to affect them quite severely in the future.
Roy Perticucci · 2025-03-14

That call has been vindicated. Crucially, Eastick was careful not to let the market over-credit the tailwind: "China is part of the story, but it is not the only thing." The point matters for the durability of the growth — this is execution and pricing as much as a regulatory gift.

International: from a "pause" to escape velocity

The most striking contrast with the prior calls is the reversal of Allegro's overseas posture. A year ago, analysts were pressing on the logistics network and margin investment, and the tone on expansion was cautious — the company had explicitly paused new geographies, describing it in March 2025 as “a pause as opposed to a stop” — Roy Perticucci · 2025-03-14. Today international is the growth engine, with the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary collectively passing 5 million buyers and prices running 12%–16% below local online stores across the Central Eastern Europe markets. It is worth noting the fine print: the international break-even target has nudged to 2029, and management is deliberately holding back the monetisation lever. Segment take rate sits at just 7% versus 12.59% in Poland. But as Eastick framed it, holding the lever back is the point — "with that much demand, it doesn't make sense to take our foot off the gas."

The two new engines: AI and fintech

The freshest signal in Allegro's own keyword set is the sudden prominence of AI as a revenue and productivity driver rather than a talking point. The buyer-side shopping assistant now has over 500,000 monthly active users, and the seller-side assistant resolves 89% of merchant issues without human help. Partnerships with OpenAI, Google and now voice-specialist ElevenLabs push Allegro into the emerging agentic commerce theme that peers like accesso are also claiming. "We see huge opportunity to use AI and to boost our GMV... this is something deeply implemented in every single piece of our platform," “Kuśmierz said” — Marcin Kuśmierz, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-09-17. Fintech is the second fresh leg. Allegro Pay loan volume grew 35% to PLN 4.5bn, funding over 16% of Polish sales, while Allegro Klik became the fastest-growing payment method in the platform's history and the Pay Card passed 200,000 daily users. The appointment of a dedicated Chief Financial Services Officer signals ambitions beyond buy-now-pay-later into insurance and partnerships like PKO BP. Travel and healthcare — the new services launched with ITAKA and LUX MED — remain in test mode, with real KPIs promised only in 2027.

What quietly fell off — and the deliberate trade-offs

Two things have faded that once dominated the narrative. The legacy Mall business, the drag that topped Allegro's own keyword list a year ago, is now close to disappearing into the baseline. And the company is accepting a structurally lower take rate — down 40bps to 12.59% — in exchange for price leadership and growth, while pushing harder on cost of delivery and logistics economics instead. "We'll continue to press maybe harder on this lever... it doesn't make sense to be moving up the take rates," “Eastick said of the pricing trade-off” — Jon Eastick, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-17. Elsewhere management flagged fuel prices and geopolitics as the chief threats to Q4 — a risk theme shared across the travel and consumer names reporting this week. With net debt at 0.72x EBITDA, PLN 3bn of cash and a PLN 1.6bn buyback already ~half deployed, Allegro has both the firepower and the momentum. The open question is whether Q3's 100% international growth is a durable re-rating or a one-time gift from a regulatory calendar — and management's own answer is that China is only part of the story.