Aemetis Rides 45Z and LCFS Tailwinds to an Inflection Point

Q2 2026 shows a sharp financial improvement, but the real story is the pending DOE 45Z correction and California LCFS pathway approvals that could multiply revenue from the same RNG volumes.

AMTX · Earnings Call · 2026-08-06

An Inflection in the Numbers

Aemetis reported its second consecutive quarter of sharply improved financials. “For the second quarter of 2026, revenue grew 20% to $62.7 million compared to $52.2 million in the second quarter of 2025” — Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-08-06. Operating income swung to a positive $5.8 million from a loss of $10.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA improved by $15.5 million. The driver: a better corn/ethanol crush, 38% higher RNG volumes, and the first meaningful contribution from 45Z Credits — $8.6 million in the quarter. Total Revenue is now running at a ~$250 million annualized pace, but the bigger story is the pile of regulatory catalysts still to be unlocked.

45Z and LCFS: The Waiting Game

The most consequential near-term catalyst is the Department of Energy's revised 45Z emissions rates. Aemetis currently receives just $15.20 per MMBtu for its dairy RNG because of an artificially high emissions rate of negative 42. Management believes the correct rate under the One Big Beautiful Bill could be closer to negative 420.

The calculator is currently generating about $15.20 we have posted on our presentation showing that we could earn over $75 per MMBtu at a negative 375.
Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-06

That would be a 5x uplift on every molecule of RNG with no additional volume. The company is also awaiting 6 additional LCFS credits pathways from CARB, which would lift the average carbon intensity of its digesters from the provisional negative 150 to the approved negative 380. “We are waiting for the 6 pending digesters to be approved under the California LCFS and the corrected 45Z emissions rate to be implemented by the Department of Energy, so we can generate renewable natural gas revenues that are consistent with existing laws in California and at the federal level.” — Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-06 The market is starting to price this optionality: LCFS credits have already rallied from the mid-$50s to ~$80, and Aemetis expects the deficit mechanism to push prices toward the $200+ cap over the next few years. This would compound the benefit of the pathway approvals, turning each digester into a far larger revenue stream.

MVR, India and the Path to Liquidity

The energy efficiency project — a Mechanical Vapor Recompression (MVR) system at its Keyes ethanol plant — is on track. “The MVR project is making excellent progress. The key equipment arrived in June, including 6 3,500-horsepower turbofans and the final large component arrived on site this week.” — Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-06 Management expects it to add $32 million of annual cash flow by cutting natural gas use 80% and lifting 45Z and LCFS values per gallon. In India, the company just received a $17 million allocation from the three state-owned oil marketing companies. “On August 4, we announced allocations to supply more than 18 million liters to India's 3 government-owned oil marketing companies over a 3-month period, which is expected to generate approximately $17 million in revenue.” — Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-06 The India IPO of a minority stake remains in the pipeline and could provide extra liquidity. The balance sheet remains strained — effective net cash is negative $399 million and the stock is down 43% from its 2026 high. But the improvement in EBITDA and the prospective 45Z step-up give management a credible path to refinance expensive debt. Prior quarters have teased these catalysts. “Contribution should hit us in third quarter, be in full place in the fourth quarter.” — Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-03-12 That was the expectation in March for MVR; now it's finally arriving. And the 45Z uplift has been the holy grail for over a year. “Our company has a tremendous, I mean, tens of millions of dollars of additional tax credits in year 2025 that are waiting for this calculation to come out.” — Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO · 2025-11-06 That quote from November 2025 highlights how long investors have waited — and how large the catch-up could be. The stock is trading at ~1.0x price-to-revenue and only ~$151M market cap, leaving plenty of asymmetric upside if the regulatory pieces fall into place. The next 12 months are pivotal.