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APi Group: Record Backlog and a Services-First Pivot Turn Data Center Demand into Recurring Gold

Q2 2026 delivers 10% organic growth and a $5B backlog, but the real story is the shift to inspection-first revenue that will compound for years.
APG · Earnings Call · 2026-07-30

A Quarter of Confirming Growth

APi Group reported a robust second quarter, with net revenues up 13% and organic growth of 10.1%. The company's End markets strategy continues to pay dividends, as both Safety Services and Specialty Services posted strong growth. Russ Becker, CEO, opened by emphasizing the disciplined execution: “Net revenues increased 13%, including 10% organic growth with growth across both segments” — Russell Becker, President and CEO · 2026-07-30. The Specialty Services segment was a standout, growing 22% organically, with segment earnings margin up 60 basis points. CFO David Jackola highlighted the margin profile: “Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14.3% for the 3 months ended June 30, 13.1% on a fixed currency basis, with adjusted EBITDA margin coming in at 13.8%” — Glenn Jackola, Executive Vice President and CFO · 2026-07-30. This marks a tenth consecutive quarter of margin expansion, even as the project-heavy mix created a headwind.

Data Centers and the Mix Trade-off

The project environment remains exceptionally strong, driven by data center construction. APi's backlog surpassed $5 billion for the first time, a record. While data centers accounted for roughly 10-11% of revenue, the company is careful to frame this as an opportunity to secure recurring service work. In Q&A, Russ noted: “I would say that the majority of the organic growth that you're seeing in specialty is coming from share and volume” — Russell Becker, President and CEO · 2026-07-30. The margin pressure from project mix is well understood—project gross margins are ~10 points lower than service—but management argues the long-term payoff is the follow-on inspection and service revenue. This is consistent with the prior quarter's commentary, where David Jackola said: “we continue to be able to get pricing on the inspection service and monitoring streams in our business” — Glenn Jackola, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer · 2026-04-30.

M&A and the Recurring Revenue Engine

APi's M&A engine is accelerating. The closing of Onyx-Fire and WTech, plus three bolt-on acquisitions, underscores the bolt on M&A strategy. Management is scaling annual deployment from $250M to $350M, and the corporate development team is leveraging AI to enhance due diligence. The record backlog—up ~25% year-over-year—is increasingly comprised of larger, longer-duration projects. Yet, the company remains committed to its services-first identity. As Russ put it:

If you look at the demand curve versus the capacity curve, the demand curve is going to far outweigh the capacity curve. And so strength will continue through 2030.

Russell Becker, President and CEO · 2026-07-30

International Recovery and Margins

International Safety was flat in the quarter, but management sees a return to growth in the back half, driven by global account wins and a stronger pipeline. The company's 60%+ recurring revenue target remains a core driver of the 16% EBITDA margin goal by 2028. Total revenue has grown from ~$922M in Q1 2019 to a run rate of ~$8.9B annualized based on the latest quarter. Q2 2026 saw adjusted free cash flow of $228M year-to-date, with a net leverage ratio of 2.2x—below the long-term target—providing ample dry powder for buybacks and deals.

Stock and Valuation

Despite the strong results, APG's stock has pulled back 16.7% from its April 2026 peak of $49.40, trading at ~2.1x price-to-revenue and 27.5x forward FCF. The market seems to be factoring in sustainability concerns. However, the company's record backlog and recurring-revenue flywheel suggest the current drawdown may be a buying opportunity. With a five-year trend of +493.9% total return and a clear path to $10B+ revenue by 2028, APi's fundamentals remain compelling. As Russ concluded: “This is a services business first that does project work” — Russell Becker, President and CEO · 2026-07-30—a reminder that the durable part of the business is the high-margin, recurring inspection and service layer that will underwrite long-term growth.