Aris Mining: On the Cusp of a Production Step-Change
A Strong Half, Reaffirmed Guidance
Aris Mining's Q2 2026 results were a study in consistency. The company delivered 74,000 ounces of gold production, $179 million of adjusted EBITDA, and ended the quarter with $426 million in cash. As CEO Neil Woodyer put it, “We delivered a strong first half year and remain firmly on track for our full year guidance.” — Neil Woodyer · 2026-07-29 This is not a new story—Aris has been executing its growth plan for several quarters. But the production guidance of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces is now within reach, and the company is increasingly confident about the trajectory.
The key driver is Segovia, where the expanded mill is no longer the bottleneck. The focus has shifted underground, with investments in haulage capacity and new ramps at El Silencio. Dustin VanDoorselaere explained that the ramp-up will be back-half weighted: “So as you can see, our weighting goes more towards Q3 and probably later Q3 and into Q4, where we'll start to see production continually ramp up towards the end of the year into 2027.” — Dustin VanDoorselaere · 2026-07-29 This matches the message from prior calls. In March, Dustin had said, “we're expecting by Q4, we should be steady into that 3,000 tonne a day run rate” — Dustin VanDoorselaere, COO · 2026-03-12. The consistency is reassuring.
The Political Overhang and Engagement
What genuinely changed in the quarter is the political backdrop. Colombia held an election, and a new government is about to take office. Aris has historically maintained a good relationship with the outgoing administration, but the incoming one is an unknown. Neil Woodyer addressed this directly: “The change in government gets complete next Saturday. I think we've had a good relationship with the current government... we spent yesterday at Segovia and Marmato with the incoming Minister of Environment with his #2 and also with the President of ANM. We had a good review of what's happening, a great deal of total support from them.” — Neil Woodyer · 2026-07-29 This is a meaningful de-risking signal. Aris operates two of its four core assets in Colombia, and political stability is critical. The proactive engagement suggests the company is managing the transition well.
This new change in government is a double-edged sword. While the initial support is encouraging, investors will be watching for any shifts in mining policy, environmental permitting, or tax treatment. The company's cash tax payments are already a notable item—Q2 is the heaviest quarter for Colombian taxes, and the proportion is expected to remain similar to prior years.
What's Next: The 500k Ounce Path
Beyond preservation, the quarter highlighted visible progress on growth projects. At Marmato, the SAG and ball mills have arrived, and mechanical installation is underway. Corne Lourens noted: “The SAG and ball mills have arrived and mechanical installation has begun.” — Cornelius Lourens · 2026-07-29 First gold remains on schedule for Q4 2026. This is the key catalyst that could transform the company's production profile. With Segovia ramping to ~3,000 tonnes per day and Marmato adding 2,000 tonnes per day, Aris has a clear path to approximately 500,000 ounces annually.
Financing is also locked down. The remaining $118 million for Marmato through year-end is mostly covered, with the final $42 million Wheaton installment expected in Q3 and the rest from cash on hand and operating cash flow. This removes a major overhang. At Toroparu, the PFS remains on track for H2 2026, with a construction decision targeted for early 2027. The company is sequencing these projects sensibly, with Toroparu likely next after Marmato, as CEO Neil Woodyer outlined in prior calls: “It is not a diversification. It's an ideal mine for us to build. It's the right size. We have the cash. We have the team. It fits in very nicely after Marmato.” — Neil Woodyer, CEO · 2025-10-30
The company's financial trajectory supports the bullish case. While the latest fundamentals are from Q2 2025, the trend is clear: Total revenue has been on a steady upward path, rising 157% over four years, and free cash flow turned positive in recent quarters. The balance sheet is stretched but manageable, with net debt of $443 million, yet the cash generation from Segovia and the upcoming Marmato ramp should improve coverage.
What makes Aris stand out now is the combination of operational momentum and a de-risked political setup. While gold stocks have struggled in the last 90 days—names like Kinross, Agnico Eagle, and Newmont have declined—Aris has held its ground, up 0.6% in the same period. The market is starting to price in the volume growth rather than just the gold price.
We entered 2026 with a clear plan, deliver from our producing operations, complete the build of Marmato and continue advancing our 2 new mine growth projects. At the halfway point, that plan remains on track.
In summary, Aris is not a story of sudden change, but of steady execution converging on a major inflection. The new government engagement, the Marmato commissioning, and the reaffirmed guidance all point to a company that is about to step up a tier. The next two quarters will be pivotal—if first gold at Marmato hits on schedule and Segovia breaks through, the re-rating could be significant.