BBVA Argentina's Prudent Pivot: Loan Growth Guidance Slashed as Credit Cycle Turns
Q2 2026 ROE jumps to 12.2% but management warns of slower expansion, prioritizing asset quality over the aggressive growth of prior years.
BBAR · Earnings Call · 2026-08-28
A Brighter Quarter, a Warier Outlook
Banco BBVA Argentina closed Q2 2026 with inflation-adjusted net income of ARS 131.6 billion, a 44.6% sequential jump that lifted quarterly ROE to 12.2%. The improvement came as inflation continued to decelerate. "During the second quarter of 2026, inflation continued to decline, reinforcing expectations that this trend will further consolidate," “noted IR Manager Belén Fourcade” — María Belén Fourcade, Investor Relations Manager · 2026-08-28. That macro backdrop has allowed the bank to hold its reported NIM stable even as rates fall, while the efficiency ratio improved to 45%. Yet the headline for investors is not the beat—it is the loan growth guidance, which has been cut dramatically from the aggressive targets set just a few months ago.Asset Quality: The Turning Point
The central topic on the call was asset quality. NPLs rose again to 6.09%, but management sees the peak behind us. CFO Carmen Morillo Arroyo stated: "We expect NPLs to stabilize and then gradually improve during the second half, ending the year at around 5.5%." The driver is a deliberate shift in origination—new vintages are performing better, especially in payroll-linked portfolios. In Q&A, she reinforced the selectivity: "So the first question, at the beginning, you mentioned the corporates. I don't really get why. So in the corporate segment, we see 0 deterioration," “she said” — Carmen Arroyo, CFO · 2026-08-28, while retail credit cards and personal loans remain under tighter underwriting. The cost of risk for the full year is now seen at 6.5%, down from the 7.1% quarterly level, and coverage—at 80%—is expected to be the trough.A Sharp Reset in Growth Ambition
What changed most is the willingness to expand the balance sheet. In March 2026, the bank guided to real loan growth of 25–30% for the year. That guidance has been slashed to roughly 10%. Management now frames this as a deliberate choice to favor quality over speed, and to let the normalization of credit costs support profitability.The contrast with prior guidance is stark. As recently as November 2025, CFO Morillo reaffirmed "we are okay with this 45% to 50% in real terms loan growth." “And in March 2026, she told analysts, "we think it's too early to change our guidance,"” — Carmen Arroyo, CFO · 2025-11-26 “referring to the 25–30% range” — Carmen Arroyo, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) · 2026-03-05. That u-turn signals a bank prioritizing risk-adjusted returns over market share gains, a shift likely to weigh on near-term growth but to shore up capital and margins.For 2026, we expect our loan book to grow around 10% in real terms.