BBVA's AI Transformation and Capital Returns: Record Results, New Buyback, and an Agentic Bet

BBVA posts record earnings, upgrades guidance in Mexico and South America, and announces a €2B buyback while doubling down on AI agents.

BBVA.MC · Earnings Call · 2026-07-30

Another Quarter of Record Performance

BBVA's Q2 2026 results were again a showcase of its "unique profile" — combining loan growth of 17.7% YoY in constant euros with a group return on tangible equity of 22.2%. CEO Onur Genç was emphatic: “We have delivered record earnings, industry-leading profitability, strong activity growth, and capital generation while reinforcing our competitive position across different geographies.” — Onur Genç · 2026-07-30 Net attributable profit hit €3.062 billion in the quarter, up 11.4% YoY, and the bank upgraded its full-year guidance for group ROTE to 'around 21%'. The engine remains the CIB business and strong credit growth in Spain and Mexico. In Spain, loan growth accelerated to 7.4% YoY, while Mexico, despite a slower macro, delivered 9.9% loan growth with market share gains. Cost of deposits is being managed tightly — a recurring theme in prior calls. As Onur explained, "a lot of new customers and a lot of focus on transactionality is the key reason for that 5% in demand deposits," referring to deposit growth in Spain.

Capital Returns to the Fore

The market's focus was on capital. BBVA announced a new €2 billion extraordinary share buyback (first tranche €1 billion) starting August 5, following the completion of the prior €4 billion program. Onur was characteristically direct:

We don't like to work with excess capital. Our target is our target, 11.5% to 12%... when we have excess capital above 12%, we will distribute it back to our shareholders.
Onur Genç · 2026-07-30

This is a continuation of the bank's capital distribution philosophy, which was emphasized in prior quarters. In the February 2026 Q&A, Onur stated: “We have been very clear, very vocal and I do think we have built the credibility around this fully. We do have this commitment that we have a capital target of 11.5% to 12%.” — Onur Genç · 2026-02-05 The consistency here is a hallmark, but the scale of the buyback — coming on top of strong organic growth — signals management's confidence in the balance sheet.

The AI Agent Bet

Perhaps the most forward-looking change is the acceleration of AI adoption. BBVA has moved from internal tools to a "frame" for creating and managing AI agents at scale. Onur described it as "a key milestone in the industrialization of AI agents across BBVA." The company is also reorganizing under an AI transformation unit. This is a genuine strategic pivot, and it mirrors the global theme of AI agents visible in the market's keyword trajectory. Yet BBVA's approach is company-specific — they are embedding agents in both customer-facing and internal processes, as seen in the 100,000+ employees already using AI tools. The related keyword rate sensitivity might seem orthogonal, but it's part of the bank's broader risk-management discipline, which now extends to AI-linked credit exposures. As Onur noted, they have a "transition risk indicator" for AI and have identified every sub-chapter of the portfolio. The CFO transition was handled gracefully, with Onur praising Luisa Gomez Bravo and confirming no strategic change. The new CFO, Gonzalo Rodriguez, inherits a bank that is ahead of its medium-term targets: "after 18 months of execution, of the strategic plan... we are performing ahead of our original expectations in the key metrics." That confidence is underpinned by tangible book value per share plus dividends growth of 17.3% YoY, or 21.8% ex-buybacks. The key takeaway is that BBVA is using its high profitability to accelerate both growth and shareholder returns, while positioning itself as a leader in banking AI. The market will be watching whether the AI agents translate into tangible efficiency gains — a question management openly acknowledged is still "too early" to quantify. But for now, the record numbers and the renewed buyback provide a strong floor for the story.