Better Collective's Q2: World Cup kick, prediction markets take off, and a strategic shift to direct advertising
Solid quarter, strategic moves
Better Collective reported a strong Q2 2026, with revenue up 9% year-over-year to EUR 89 million and operational earnings up 20% to EUR 27 million, expanding the EBITDA margin by 2 percentage points to 30%. Cash conversion hit 111%, and new depositing customers grew 24% to 373,000, with 70% under revenue share agreements. The clear message from management is one of momentum: “Our FIFA World Cup activities and prediction market initiatives delivered in line with expectations” — Jesper Søgaard · 2026-08-21 and supported engagement across the business.
Prediction markets: a new growth engine
The standout theme this quarter is the rapid scaling of prediction markets. North American CPA revenue jumped 50% to EUR 5 million, driven entirely by this nascent vertical. As Jesper Søgaard explained, the market is still in its early innings: “we started the year with one player being active there. And then, sort of, during the second quarter, we got one more into the market.” — Jesper Søgaard · 2026-08-21 With NFL starting soon and competition intensifying, he expects this to become a significant growth driver for the second half. This is a theme the company has been previewing for quarters; as Jesper said back in Q3 last year, prediction markets are “a win-win” — Jesper Søgaard · 2025-11-13 for the group.
World Cup and AI: scaling content
The FIFA World Cup provided the expected boost, but the more interesting evolution is how AI is transforming content production. On the call, Søgaard highlighted that AI allowed them to scale expert tips and opinions more than tenfold across their brand portfolio: “scale that content utilizing AI more than tenfold with, sort of, tips and expert opinions being produced for one brand in one market that we can then scale utilizing AI across many more brands.” — Jesper Søgaard · 2026-08-21 This is not a one-off: AI is now embedded across product, content, and internal processes, reflecting a broader strategic shift toward operational leverage. The AI-first approach is not new—Jesper noted in the prior call that “AI is already adopted to a very large extent in what we do” — Jesper Søgaard · 2026-05-21.
Advertising monetization: the AdVantage pivot
Perhaps the most strategic move is the planned consolidation of CPM and sponsorship into a single advertising revenue line from next year. Q2 already showed the trade-off in action: sponsorship revenue surged 39% to EUR 16 million while CPM fell 16% to EUR 6 million, driving total advertising revenue up 18%. This is the essence of the AdVantage framework—replacing lower-yield programmatic with higher-value direct deals. The company is building deeper relationships via talent-led media like talent led media and Playmaker HQ, which recently hosted a sold-out live event with NBA champions at Madison Square Garden.
Regulatory headwinds and outlook
External headwinds remain, particularly the U.K. remote gaming duty increase (a ~EUR 2 million hit) and Brazilian regulatory changes (also ~EUR 2 million). Management noted that Brazil's political climate creates uncertainty but expressed confidence in the resilience of the model. The full-year guidance remains unchanged: 7-12% organic revenue growth and 8-18% EBITDA growth. As Flemming Pedersen noted, the strong first half keeps them on track: “Cash flow from operations before special items increased by 59% to EUR 30 million” — Flemming Pedersen, CFO · 2026-08-21, underscoring cash generation.
Looking at the bigger picture, this quarter demonstrates a company successfully pivoting from a pure affiliate model to a diversified digital sports media group. The prediction markets vertical, combined with the advertising monetization push and AI-driven efficiency, gives Better Collective multiple levers for growth. As Jesper concluded,
The most important takeaway from Q2 is not any single KPI, but it's the momentum we are now seeing across several parts of Better Collective at the same time.