Banco Macro: Raising ROE, Slashing Loan Growth – A Bank in Transition
Guidance flips as the bank bets on cost cuts and fees over volume
BMA · Earnings Call · 2026-08-20
A Tale of Two Guidance Numbers
Banco Macro's Q2 2026 earnings call delivered a surprising split: the bank raised its adjusted ROE guidance from 8% to 12% for the year while simultaneously slashing its real loan growth forecast from the previous double-digit range to just 2–5% in real terms. The CFO was blunt about the growth reality: “That guidance was 2 quarters ago. Now the new 1 is between 2 and 5 in real terms,” — Jorge Francisco Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) · 2026-08-20 he said, confirming that the earlier optimism had faded as the pre-electoral year took hold.Yet on profitability, the tone was markedly more positive. Jorge Scarinci, the CFO, told analysts, “We are increasing our ROE guidance for 2026. The previous level for the adjusted ROE was in the area of 8%. Now we are moving up this guidance to the area of 12% for the average for 2026.” — Jorge Francisco Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) · 2026-08-20 The improvement comes from better-than-expected margins and a continued cost-cutting drive, but it is tempered by the explicit acknowledgment that lending volume – the traditional engine of bank profits – is stagnating.
This is a classic adjusted ROE versus guidance for loan growth trade-off, and it sets up the central tension for the stock. The market is being told: "we can be more profitable with less growth," which is unusual for a bank in a hyperinflationary recovery.
The Cost Side of the Equation
The bank's response to the growth slowdown has been to accelerate its restructuring program. It closed another 18 branches in the quarter, down to 402, and cut headcount by 8% year-on-year. The CFO framed this as a permanent change:The restructuring will continue... In order of closing additional branches and some reduction on FTEs. What we are going to see along 2026 you will see, of course, the impact on the total cost of layoffs and, of course, in 2027, we are going to see all the savings on this less FTE number and lower number of branches.
This ties directly to the restructuring program that has been a recurring theme across recent quarters. But the bank is also investing in new sources of fee income. The CEO highlighted the launch of auto insurance, a wealth management app, and a first-in-market loyalty program. He boasted about the new AI-driven WhatsApp channel: “We launched the first conversational banking WhatsApp channel. In the industry. You can customers can 6 million customers can operate the bank intuitively using day to day language.” — Juan Martin Parma, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) · 2026-08-20 These moves are aimed at deepening customer relationships and moving them from non-primary to primary customers, which the bank says are 8–9x more profitable.
While fee income is seen as the growth lever, asset quality remains a concern. The reported NPL ratio rose to 6.25% in Q2, up from 5.4%, but the bank argues that its "own-risk" Stage 3 loans are far healthier at 4.1%, with coverage of 148.8%. The CFO explained the distinction: “It is very important to make the difference between our own-risk customers and the 1 on the contagion of our own customers with being non recurrent in other banks or digital wallets here.” — Jorge Francisco Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) · 2026-08-20 This is a critical nuance for investors trying to parse the Stage 3 versus total NPL numbers.
The bank's guidance for cost of risk at 6.5–7% for 2026 and NPLs at 5.5–6% implies further deterioration, but management is confident the worst is behind them, pointing to better vintages from new origination. In contrast to the March call, where the bank projected “we're expecting 20% real growth in the calendar year of '26 and deposit growth of 6% in real terms,” — Jorge Francisco Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-03-02 the tone has shifted dramatically. Now the bank is also trimming deposit growth to a "10% real area," acknowledging the sluggish macroeconomic backdrop.
What Investors Should Watch
The 2–5% real loan growth forecast is a sharp contrast to the 20%+ the bank was expecting just a few months ago, underscoring the fragility of the Argentine macro backdrop. The CFO also trimmed deposit growth guidance to around 10% real – still positive, but below earlier hopes. However, the bank's fortress balance sheet – Tier 1 at 28% and excess liquidity of 79% of deposits – gives it ample room to weather the slowdown and potentially pursue M&A.The market's reaction to the call will hinge on whether it believes the ROE raise is sustainable without volume growth. The bank's own 2030 target of 20% nominal ROE suggests it sees a longer-term transformation away from pure intermediation toward fees and efficiency. For now, the wealth management push and the digital initiatives are the new stories, but they are early stage.
In a global context where Argentine assets are suffering from political uncertainty and rising US yields, Banco Macro is offering a nuanced message: profitability is improving even as growth fades. The stock will likely remain range-bound until investors see concrete evidence that the fee-driven strategy can offset the lack of loan volume. The prior call's asset quality warning – “we are forecasting to have continued deterioration in our case, maybe to level up to 3% of total loans by the end of the year” — Jorge Francisco Scarinci, Executive (likely CFO or similar senior finance role) · 2025-08-28 – has proven prescient, and the market will be watching closely to see if the bank can hold the line on its upgraded ROE target.