Commerzbank's momentum and UniCredit talks: a balancing act

Record results, constructive dialogue, and AI-driven efficiency.

CBK.DE · Earnings Call · 2026-08-06

Record results amid a takeover backdrop

Commerzbank delivered a strong first half, with revenues up 7% year-on-year to €6.5 billion and a record net result of €1.8 billion, a 40% increase. CEO Bettina Orlopp credited the Corporate Clients franchise and disciplined execution. The cost income ratio improved to 53%, and the net RoTE reached 12.6%. These results came despite the distraction of UniCredit's takeover approach, with Orlopp noting that clients have remained loyal: “We are in the lucky situation that clients value our business model, our value proposition and therefore, are loyal, and we intend to keep it like that.” “We are in the lucky situation that clients value our business model, our value proposition and therefore, are loyal, and we intend to keep it like that.” — Bettina Orlopp, CEO · 2026-08-06 This resilience is a testament to the strength of the franchise.

Navigating the UniCredit dialogue

The key change is the shift in tone towards constructive talks. UniCredit now controls almost 50% of voting rights after the tender offer, but only 2.7% of independent shareholders tendered. Orlopp says the two banks are starting discussions on governance, business model, and potential synergies. She emphasised that any structural changes require a 75% majority, protecting minority shareholders. The company remains committed to its own Momentum strategy as the benchmark for value creation. In response to an analyst question about restructuring costs that UniCredit may book, Orlopp pushed back:

…we, as Management Board, but also as Supervisory Board, our mandate is to protect the institution… So we can't actually also do not take any directions from a controlling shareholder, but we have to follow our own strategy.
Bettina Orlopp, CEO · 2026-08-06

This sets a clear red line against external assumptions.

Financial drivers and outlook

CFO Carsten Schmitt detailed the NII trajectory, expecting a pickup in H2 from the replication portfolio and higher ECB rates. He also announced an expected RWA relief of mid- to high-single-digit billions from IRB model changes, which will lower the 2028 RWA guidance. This provides optionality on RWA relief and may reduce SRT issuance. The bank also confirmed its 100% payout policy and plans for a higher dividend, with at least 50% of capital return as dividends. Deposit competition remains intense, with new entrants offering teaser rates above 3%. Orlopp noted they deliberately let some deposits go to preserve profitability. “That's not profitable from our standpoint. So we have a valid situation.” — Bettina Orlopp, CEO · 2026-08-06 This tied to the deposit beta guidance of ~41%.

AI as a growth engine

A recurring theme across quarters is the use of AI to drive efficiency and revenue. The bank targets €600 million in cumulative AI investments through 2030, with a value contribution of €500 million per annum. In Q2, they rolled out AI tools to all employees and decommissioned 10% of IT systems. This aligns with the pickup in productivity and the share price outperformance. Prior calls highlighted the use of AI in deposit pricing, showing consistency in the strategy. “…we have proven actually for ourselves last year that managing the deposits and also the pricing of the deposits, is including our AI-based approach…” — Carsten Schmitt, CFO · 2026-02-11

Outlook and uncertainty

The bank raised its German GDP forecast to 1% and remains confident of hitting its 2026 targets: total revenues of €13.2 billion, cost-income ratio of 53%, and net RoTE of around 12%. Risk result guidance of €850 million is maintained despite lower defaults in H1, reflecting caution on geopolitical risks. The RWA relief is a positive tailwind that was not in the original Momentum plan, giving extra capital flexibility. Overall, Commerzbank is executing well on its own strategy while navigating a new shareholder structure. The key risk is whether the constructive dialogue with UniCredit can deliver a joint approach that creates value without undermining the franchise. As Orlopp said, “…we can align on where can we collaborate without getting into problems because we are competitors.” — Bettina Orlopp, CEO · 2026-08-06 The market will watch for progress updates at Q3 results.