CMB.TECH Sells at the Top: Record Q2, Peak Asset Prices, and a Cautious Tanker Outlook

A Banner Quarter, Deliberately Harvested

CMB.TECH delivered an exceptional second quarter, with net profit of $364.4 million on revenue above $700 million and EBITDA of $552 million. The headline in the release was “making hay, making hay while the sun shines” — and CEO Alexander Saverys made clear the company is actively harvesting the cycle. “We have sold quite a few ships so far this year. In the second quarter, we have delivered to their new owners 2 VLCCs, the Ilma and the Ingrid, on which we booked a capital gain of $98 million.” — Alexander Saverys, CEO · 2026-08-27 Add the sale of an older Suezmax and the quarter’s total asset-sale gains reached $127 million.

The market backdrop supports this strategy. As Saverys noted, secondhand values for VLCCs and Suezmaxes are Suezmaxes well above their 10-year averages and even above the prior cyclical maximum. The company intends to sell two more Suezmaxes in Q3 (booking a $100 million gain) and a VLCC plus another Suezmax in Q4 (adding $130 million). These are not distress sales but peace deal – we’re selling into strength. In Q&A he confirmed the rationale: “I think just look at the numbers over the past 30 years, prices we are seeing today, particularly for some of our VLCCs and Suezmaxes are an opportunity we want to take and then take some money off the table.” — Alexander Saverys, CEO · 2026-08-27

Capital Returns and a Simpler Balance Sheet

The market has rewarded this discipline. The company declared a dividend of $0.64 per share – split between an interim dividend and a distribution from the share premium reserve that is exempt from withholding tax. Management confirmed the dividend will not be impacted by the upcoming bond repayment. On the call, Saverys reiterated a 50% payout target (of net profit, including vessel sale gains) that has now been maintained for two quarters. This is a deliberate shift from the prior discretionary approach, as seen in the Contract backlog context. Compare that to the language on the Q1 call: “I think distribution to shareholders will definitely continue to be a full focus on our side.” — Ludovic Saverys, Executive/Management · 2026-05-19 That focus has now become concrete.

Equally important, the company is using cash to eliminate debt rather than refinance. The $3.3 billion contract backlog remains stable, while CapEx commitments have fallen to less than $1 billion, with only $119 million unfunded. The bond maturing September 14 will be repaid from own cash.

We will not refinance the bond. We will repay it.

Tanker Caution, Dry Bulk Optimism

While the tanker market is exceptionally strong today – spot rates above $120,000/day for VLCCs and Suezmaxes – the company is clearly peering over the cliff. The order book to fleet for VLCCs and Suezmaxes has exceeded 30%, and management expects a “tsunami” of deliveries in 2027-28. cautious approach is the operative phrase. As Saverys says: “We are trying to counter that by selling some of our vessels at these rates that we see today and by trying to take some cover, charter cover so that when the market corrects, we still enjoy higher rates.” — Alexander Saverys, CEO · 2026-08-27

Dry bulk is a different story. The company is positive on that segment, citing strong demand for major commodities, a tight order book (around 15% for Capes) and an aging fleet. Two specific themes stood out as new and company-specific: the potential impact of el niño on Panamax rates, and the ramp-up of Simandou iron ore. Saverys dedicated several slides to El Niño, explaining how it could reroute vessels, boost grain and coal trades, and lift dry bulk earnings. On Simandou, he noted that the mine’s low breakeven cost could replace shorter-haul iron ore, potentially adding a 7% kicker to Capesize ton-miles. These are genuinely novel themes for this company – not recurring boilerplate. The FE content of Chinese iron ore imports was another nuance: lower domestic production and higher-quality imports could support seaborne volumes.

Geopolitical Wildcard

The biggest swing factor for tanker rates is the potential for a peace deal in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. A resolution could open up the strait and short-haul the oil, or conversely trigger a massive restocking by China. “The answer to your question, therefore, lies – there’s many different aspects to it. But I think predominantly in what will China do.” — Alexander Saverys, CEO · 2026-08-27 The dark fleet is another wildcard; management believes it will not disappear overnight, as “the dark fleet will not disappear overnight. I think there’s 50 shades of gray now.” — Alexander Saverys, CEO · 2026-08-27

The company’s positioning – selling tankers at peak, returning cash, and maintaining a modern, diversified fleet – is a textbook example of cycle management. With a market cap of $5.2 billion and a fleet value of $11.2 billion, the shares trade at a meaningful discount to NAV, and the increased dividend provides a tangible path to that gap. This is not a company drifting; it is a company actively recalibrating for the downturn it sees coming, while maximizing the present.