Euronext's Record Quarter Comes With a 'Show Me the Money' Problem

A 25% revenue surge and a EUR350m buyback are real; the CSD monetization and fixed-income run-rate are still promises.

ENX.PA · Earnings Call · 2026-11-06

The best quarter, with a compositional catch

Euronext's third quarter was, by the CEO's own framing, the strongest since the IPO. “This quarter, we delivered the strongest quarterly performance since our IPO, with record revenue and income of EUR 547,400,000, up 24.9% compared to last year.” — Stéphane Boujnah, CEO and Chairman of the Managing Board · 2026-11-06 Adjusted EBITDA rose 31.6%, the margin reached 66.5%, and adjusted EPS came in at EUR 2.21, up 31.5%. That is the tenth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth. The headline is clean. The more interesting question is what is underneath it. Non-volume revenue grew 14.8%, but volume-related revenue rose 40.1%, so the non-volume share of the mix fell to 55% from 60% a year earlier. Non-volume related revenue still covered 165% of underlying operating expenses, excluding D&A, but the direction of the mix matters. Euronext's pitch is a diversified, resilient business, and this quarter the trading engine did more of the heavy lifting than the subscription-like businesses. The Euronext Athens integration is a genuine diversifier, and the Greek market's reclassification to developed status is a real catalyst. Power futures are another. But both are still volume-sensitive in a way that the CSD and data businesses are not. The quarter was excellent; the quality-of-revenue debate is live.

Fixed income: record now, run-rate later?

The stand-out was fixed income. Fixed Income trading and clearing revenue rose 56.2%, and MTS Cash printed a record average daily value traded of EUR 88.1bn. Management's explanation is unusually candid: bond-market volumes depend on the level of volatility and on expected volatility. Q3 benefited from a long stretch of stability that allowed traders to build large portfolios. Since then, volatility has spiked and volumes have behaved exactly as they did earlier in the year. “what we are currently seeing in the market is something which is similar to what has happened at the beginning of the year.” — Giorgio Modica, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) · 2026-11-06 The CFO said MTS Cash volumes dropped to around EUR 40bn per day and had recovered to roughly EUR 60bn, still below the record quarter. That is not a broken thesis; it is a reminder that the level of volatility can flatter a quarter. The structural story in MTS is real: more non-Italian debt, more dealer-to-client, more of the European fixed-income value chain. But the near-term revenue line is cyclical, and the market will discount it that way.

CSD: the game-changer still needs a cash register

The Euronext Securities project went live on 21 September. Management called it a game changer, and the operational facts are better than a year ago: around 16 issuers in Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam are using the model, first trading members are live, and Eurocommercial Properties has publicly committed to migrate. The strategic logic is sound: for decades European post-trade has been fragmented, and Euronext is offering a pan-European alternative with interoperability, so it does not need a winner-takes-all outcome. But the monetization is still mostly ahead. Management would not give market share, revenue conversion or a 2027 numerical target. The closest thing to a number was a promise to show a gradual top-line impact through 2027. This has been a multi-quarter story. In July, Stéphane Boujnah defined success as a progressive ramp: “It will be successful, but it will take time because, as Pierre said, it's not a migration where on Friday, you are on one system and on Monday, you are on a new one.” — Stéphane Boujnah · 2026-07-31 That was reasonable then. It is still reasonable now. But the language has been upgraded without the disclosure catching up.

To your question, which is basically, 'Show me the money,' we will show you the money when the money is there, and the money is starting to be there, but not in a material level for the moment. But the money machine is built, which is very different from where we were two years ago.
Stéphane Boujnah, CEO and Chairman of the Managing Board · 2026-11-06

That is the tension in the stock story. The CSD is no longer a PowerPoint; it is a live platform. But it is not yet a material earnings contributor, and competitors are already cutting fees to slow adoption. Investors can underwrite the strategic option value, but they cannot yet underwrite the revenue line.

AI, costs and the buyback: tangible, but not quantified

The cost guidance was upgraded to EUR 760m from EUR 770m for 2026. That is a modest cut, but it is a cut in a year when Euronext is still investing in power futures, repo clearing, the CSD and digital assets. Management credited AI productivity gains, but refused to size them. “we are definitely observing stronger than expected cost reduction related to AI. We do not communicate any specific number in this respect.” — Stéphane Boujnah, CEO and Chairman of the Managing Board · 2026-11-06 That is a partial reveal. In July, the CFO had said the time for revised cost guidance had not come and pointed to November. “we don't want to share numbers today for 2 reasons. The time from -- for the revised cost guidance has not come. It may come in November when we release our Q3 numbers.” — Stéphane Boujnah · 2026-07-31 November has arrived, and the guidance moved, but the AI number did not. The practical read is that productivity gains are real but being recycled into investment and margin rather than disclosed as a standalone savings pool. The EUR 350m buyback is the cleaner signal: capital allocation remains disciplined, leverage is low at 1.1x net debt to EBITDA, and management would rather return cash than overpay for M&A.

The succession overhang

The other new item is the CEO transition. The supervisory board intends to nominate David Knibbe, currently CEO of NN, as Stéphane Boujnah's successor at the May 2027 AGM. Boujnah has been the architect of the Euronext story for over a decade, so the market will inevitably ask about continuity. He pushed back hard: 2027 is not a transition year, the board is managing retention, and the strategy does not change. “I will not be concerned about any retention issue.” — Stéphane Boujnah, CEO and Chairman of the Managing Board · 2026-11-06 The new CEO headline is not a reason to sell the equity on its own, but it adds a governance variable at the same time as the CSD and fixed-income run-rate debates are unresolved. Euronext is executing. Athens is ahead of plan, power futures are scaling, the CSD is live, and the buyback is real. But this quarter's 25% revenue growth was helped by a volatility regime that is already normalizing. The next leg has to come from the structural projects, and the company is not yet willing to put numbers on them. That is the story: a high-quality operator with a record quarter and a market that will now ask for the CSD cash register to ring.