Energy Transfer rides the AI power wave to a record guidance raise

Midstream giant lifts 2026 EBITDA outlook by $750M as data-center gas demand and Middle East rerouting boost volumes.

ET · Earnings Call · 2026-05-05

A Blockbuster Quarter

Energy Transfer's first-quarter print was a clear step-change. “We generated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4.9 billion compared to approximately $4.1 billion for the first quarter of last year.” — Tom Long, CEO · 2026-05-05 That $800 million year-over-year jump—and a $500 million beat vs. internal plan—prompted management to raise full-year EBITDA guidance by $750 million at the midpoint to $18.2–18.6 billion. The company also lifted its organic growth capital plan to $5.5–5.9 billion, a meaningful increase from the prior $5.0–5.5 billion, on a slate of new gas-supply projects.

The Data Center Gold Rush

The dominant driver is the surging demand for natural gas to fuel power plants behind AI data centers. Energy Transfer has been signing up a string of firm transportation deals: a 150 MMcf/d commitment to Nexus Hubbard's AI hyperscale campus in Central Texas, a new data center site in Arkansas on the EGT pipeline, and a 20-year agreement with Intergic Louisiana with an option to upsize to 1 Bcf/d. As Marshall McCrea put it on the call, “there is a very clear redirection to the U.S. for all products—LNG, NGLs, oil, etc.” — Marshall McCrea, President and COO · 2026-05-05 The data centers are becoming a structural growth engine, and ET's massive power plant connections are being augmented by new projects like the Springerville lateral off the Transwestern system.

Middle East Tailwind

The ongoing Middle East conflict is further accelerating the trend. Global buyers are increasingly turning to U.S. energy, and ET is one of the best-positioned midstream players to capture that flow. McCrea noted,

It really emphasizes the value of what this country offers and, more importantly, what our partnership offers to deliver these products around the world.
Marshall McCrea, President and COO · 2026-05-05

Producers are responding: the company projects 800,000 Mcf/d of growth in the Haynesville into its processing assets by August–September, and already sees increased rig counts in the Permian.

Financial Strength

The numbers back up the optimism. Total revenue reached $27.8B in Q1, up 32% year-over-year, while operating income rose 20% to $3.0B. The company is investing heavily in growth—CapEx jumped 57% y/y to $1.9B—but leverage remains manageable with a leverage ratio consistently around 4x. Management has been touting the data center opportunity for over a year. On the November 2025 call, McCrea said, “The unique nature of these data centers, especially the hyperscalers are very confidential. So unlike a lot of our business, we can't really talk about it.” — Marshall McCrea, Senior Management / Executive · 2025-11-06 And on the February 2026 call, he pointed to the storage advantage: “we have over 230 Bcf of storage and expanding on that as we speak to be able to provide the pretty much 100% reliability that's required by these data centers.” — Marshall McCrea · 2026-02-17 The demand growth is not just cyclical; it reflects a durable shift in the energy landscape, and ET is positioning to capture it for years. With the stock up 10% in the last 90 days and a 68% gain over the past three years, the market is already paying attention. market volatility is, for once, working in the company's favor.