Diversification pays off: GAP's EBITDA grows 8.4% even as traffic falls 5.6%

The resilience thesis

GAP's second-quarter results were a study in contrasts. Passenger traffic fell 5.6% year over year, but revenue (ex-construction) rose 4.9%, EBITDA grew 8.4%, and EBITDA margin expanded a sharp 230 basis points to 69.3%. CEO Raúl Revuelta was clear-eyed about the traffic slide, yet emphasized the company's ability to grow earnings regardless:

While we are not satisfied with the current traffic performance, this quarter demonstrates that GAP is increasingly capable of protecting earnings and generating growth through multiple complementary revenue streams.

World Cup and traffic headwinds

The traffic decline is partly a story of temporary dislocations. The World Cup disrupted travel patterns in June, as Guadalajara hosted five matches. Revuelta explained that higher airfares and seat substitution kept domestic travelers away: “We are seeing a July that will bring some of this lack of domestic passengers... and in some way that they avoided to fly during June for the World Cup, but we are seeing that will fly on July.” — Raúl Revuelta, CEO · 2026-07-15 Beyond the World Cup, he cited rising jet fuel costs, security concerns in Puerto Vallarta, and a softer Mexican economy. Yet he still expects full-year traffic to land between -3% and flat, implying a meaningful second-half improvement.

Diversification: CBX and internalization

The bright spot is non-aeronautical revenue, which jumped 23.9% (or +17% ex-CBX). The newly consolidated CBX generated MXN 168 million in just two months, with an average revenue of $42.8 per passenger. Revuelta highlighted that “the consolidation of the Cross Border Xpress beginning on the first of May of this year” — Raúl Revuelta, CEO · 2026-07-15 and the internalization of technical assistance both supported EBITDA. Indeed, the results included the reversal of a technical assistance fee provision—a direct benefit of internalization. The company also highlighted strength across its directly operated businesses: cargo +22%, advertising +58%, hotels +27%, convenience stores +11%, and parking +9%. This portfolio effect is exactly what management has been building toward in past calls, as CFO Saúl Villarreal noted in the 2026-02-25 call: “if we begin with the consolidation in the second quarter, for the fourth quarter, we could show important efficiencies on the CBX consolidation process.” — Raul Musalem, Executive (likely CEO or senior management) · 2026-02-25 That promise is now showing up in the numbers.

Tariff and FIBRA: the path ahead

On tariffs, GAP is steadily marching toward the maximum approved levels. The company achieved 90% fulfilment in the first half and expects ~95% by year-end, helped by a July 1 increase in Cabos and Puerto Vallarta. Revuelta noted: “On the first six months of the year, we have 90% of fulfillment of the maximum tariff. We are expecting that for the end of the year will be something around 95%.” — Raúl Revuelta, CEO · 2026-07-15 This tariff increase on tariff is a recurring lever, as management has pushed for annual adjustments across multiple periods. In the 2025-10-22 call, Raúul reaffirmed: “we are growing around 95% of fulfillment.” — Raul Musalem, Executive (likely CEO or senior management) · 2026-02-25 The steady climb provides a clear revenue offset to traffic softness.

A new strategic milestone is the proposed FIBRA trust for its 12 Mexican airports. CFO Saúl Villarreal outlined the structure and its tax implications, noting there will be "no expected benefit on tax" for GAP beyond a temporary interest shield in 2026-27. He added that they expect to launch the FIBRA in the coming weeks. This is a new avenue for financing the Master Development Plan without diluting shareholders—a development worth watching.

Looking to 2027, Revuelta was cautious but constructive, citing two key risks: the war in Iran and oil prices, and the impending Viva-Volaris merger that could reshape capacity. Still, he expects growth to resume as the Hurricane Melissa drag fades and Jamaica's hotel capacity recovers. As he put it in the webcast portion: “We are today in a flatter economy that for sure will have some kind of impact on our passengers growth on the coming months.” — Raúl Revuelta, CEO · 2026-07-15 But with EBITDA margins now above 69%, GAP has demonstrated that its earnings power is no longer solely tied to traffic volumes.