Glencore's Record H1, ASX Pivot, and the Race to Unlock Copper Value
A strong first half underpins a strategic secondary listing, copper growth acceleration, and disciplined capital returns.
GLEN.L · Earnings Call · 2026-08-05
A Half of Records and a New Chapter
Glencore delivered a first half that was, by any measure, exceptional. Adjusted industrial EBITDA of $6.5 billion and marketing EBIT of $3.3 billion – a near-record – combined for a $10.1 billion half-year adjusted EBITDA, a 158% jump in funds from operations to $8.1 billion, and a net debt reduction to $10.2 billion. The company also announced a $1.5 billion top-up shareholder return, split between cash and a $0.5 billion buyback. But the headline that captured the market’s attention was the decision to pursue a secondary listing on the Australian Stock Exchange, targeting ASX 200 inclusion within 12 months and an ambition to reach ASX 100 status thereafter. “We did announce this morning that we are going to establish a secondary listing on the Australian Stock Exchange.” — Gary Nagle, CEO · 2026-08-05 The move is a direct response to sustained investor interest—particularly from Australian super funds that face internal constraints on offshore holdings. As Gary Nagle explained,
It's not a race to bring on the tonnes. It's a race to bring on value for shareholders.
This philosophy also underpins the company's copper strategy: a portfolio of brownfield expansions and new projects, including Alumbrera (now ahead of schedule), the Mutanda sulphides, and the Antapaccay district’s Coroccohuayco and Quechua options, all aimed at lifting baseline production to 1 million tonnes by 2028 and a 1.6 million tonne ambition by 2035.
Copper Growth and the Cost Squeeze
The copper division was the standout industrial performer, with EBITDA rising from $1.1 billion to $3.0 billion on the back of a 39% price increase and strong volume growth, particularly from African assets that more than doubled their contribution. This is a copper growth story that is increasingly tangible, with first production from Alumbrera now expected in late 2027 rather than H1 2028. However, the half also highlighted persistent cost pressures: diesel, sulphur, and sulphuric acid costs, compounded by Middle East supply disruptions, created a $1.1 billion negative cost variance. Steven Kalmin described these as “largely transient,” and the company expects some moderation in H2, but the immediate impact on unit costs was visible. The decision to sell cobalt in a less-refined form has added a temporary non-cash cost increase, which management expects to reverse as the material is ultimately processed and sold. The narrative remains one of volume-led margin expansion, with Africa’s EBITDA swinging from $0.1 billion to over $1 billion, a clear demonstration of the operating leverage inherent in the business.
Marketing Strength and Capital Discipline
Marketing’s near-record performance, driven by energy market dislocations and arbitrage opportunities, has reinforced the franchise’s value. The company has set an indicative full-year marketing EBIT of $4.7–5.0 billion, even as it assumes a more moderate H2. The surplus capital from the Bunge stake—now worth about $3.5 billion—is being deployed conservatively, with $1.5 billion returned to shareholders and the remainder retained for optimal monetization. The company also continues to explore infrastructure asset sales, such as water treatment and desalination assets, to unlock further value. This disciplined approach extends to the steelmaking coal business, where management sees a balanced market ahead, and to thermal coal, where they believe global energy security concerns will sustain demand and pricing over the long term. “we're making very good progress with Orion CMC.” — Gary Nagle, CEO · 2026-08-05 The Orion MOU for a 40% stake in DRC operations is progressing, though valuation and due diligence are still pending, and Gary indicated that the announced $9 billion indicative value is not locked in.
Priorities and Shareholder Value
Despite the strong financial results, safety remains the top priority, with four fatalities in two incidents serving as a wake-up call. Gary reiterated, “Safety is our #1 priority every single day.” The company is redoubling efforts to achieve zero harm. Operationally, the full-year guidance is intact, with production expected to meet targets. The ASX listing is not the first time Glencore has considered its register; the prior decision to retain coal was made after extensive shareholder consultation, and management remains open to revisiting it if shareholders change their minds. “We've had zero incoming around an interest to spin off coal.” — Gary Nagle, CEO · 2026-02-18 This continuity, combined with the new ASX push and copper growth pipeline, positions Glencore for a potential re-rating as it accesses deeper pools of capital and delivers on its growth agenda. The half-year results underscore a company that is both cash-generative and strategically forward-looking, with a clear roadmap for value creation that extends well beyond the current cycle.