Hafnia在波斯湾冲突中乘风破浪，但CEO交接和供给正常化是悬在头上的剑
Q2净利润创2022年Q3以来新高，股息提升至90%，但管理层警告市场尚未正常化
HAFN · Earnings Call · 2026-08-28
一个由冲突驱动的强劲季度
Hafnia在第二季度实现了净利2.778亿美元，这是自2022年第三季度以来的最佳成绩，股东回报也因此提升至90%的派息率。正如CEO Mikael Skov在电话会议中所指出的，公司正在应对持续的地缘政治扰乱：“The market has not yet normalized 6 months after the start of the conflict in the Persian Gulf. We are still experiencing disruptions to Gulf flows and rising tensions have reestablished the <keyword id="f489738506">Red Sea</keyword> chokepoints, dislocating oil flows across the world.” — Mikael Opstun Skov, CEO · 2026-08-28 红海和波斯湾的中断已经导致货物改道，延长了航行距离，而全球barrels per day的需求也在逐步恢复。Soren Winther在商业回顾中强调，库存重建将是未来几个季度吨英里需求的关键支撑，但他也提醒说，市场动态可能很快变化。确实，他提到：“The demand recovery is following a familiar pattern to COVID-19 in 2020, which took roughly 4 quarters to normalize.” — Søren Winther, VP, Commercial · 2026-08-28战略方向与领导层交接
除了出色的财务表现，本季度还宣布了CEO的交接。Mikael Skov将在9月1日卸任，由Søren Steenberg Jensen接任。Skov谈到了公司的长期资本配置哲学：“I don't know if it's underappreciated is that I think our strong focus on capital allocation and particularly discipline through the cycles.” — Mikael Opstun Skov, CEO · 2026-08-28 这种纪律在出售老船和维持低杠杆的做法中体现出来。公司还通过分红将现金返还给股东，本季度每股派息0.5003美元。分析师Frode Morkedal在问答环节中提问了关于Panama Canal的潜在影响，Soren Winther回应说，如果再叠加其他中断，可能会进一步支撑运费。风险与不确定性
尽管当前环境有利，但管理层对市场的正常化持谨慎态度。Soren Winther在总结中指出，如果Hormuz和红海重新开放，市场可能失去当前因低效而带来的支撑。此外，订单簿和LR2迁移是潜在的下行风险。值得注意的是，在之前的财报电话会议中，管理层曾积极锁定了LR2的长期合约，Soren在2025年12月提到：“we, during Q3 and into Q4, have covered more of our LR2 fleet for three years. You're talking four ships, where three with 3-year deals and one is a 2-year deal.” — Søren Winther, VP, Commercial · 2025-12-01 这一策略在当前环境下显得尤为聪明。然而，随着新船交付和可能的制裁解除，市场供应的增加可能会削弱这种支持。此外，公司在过去也强调了East of Suez市场的重要性，但当前地缘政治使得这一区域的前景充满变数。事实上，Soren在2025年5月曾表示：“we trade them predominantly in the Eastern hemisphere at the moment in the CPP segments and not much in the dirty trade as it is.” — Søren Winther, VP Commercial · 2025-05-15 现在，随着中东出口恢复，这一格局可能改变。在第二季度中，Hafnia的TCE收入达到3.729亿美元，adjusted EBITDA为2.873亿美元。公司还出售了6艘老旧船舶，录得3930万美元的收益。这些行动有助于进一步降低杠杆，net LTV降至13%。尽管当前业绩强劲，但投资者应关注地缘政治的变化以及CEO过渡后的战略是否延续。This transition has been planned carefully and with continuity in mind. Søren has been part of Hafnia since the beginning in 2010. And as Head of Asset Management, he has been deeply involved in shaping our fleet, our asset strategy, capital allocation and many of the decisions that have brought Hafnia to where it is today.