Lucky Strike’s World Cup Hangover: A One-Time Shock Masks a Water Park Inflection
Despite a flat comp, the company guides to $340M-$360M EBITDA as water parks, events, and cost discipline set up FY27.
LUCK · Earnings Call · 2026-08-27
Weather, Sports, and the Consumer
Lucky Strike’s fiscal 2026 ended with a same-store sales comp of -0.2%, but that headline masks a year of two halves: a strong start, a June collapse, and an August rebound. The culprit was not a weak consumer, but an unprecedented five-week block of at-home sports viewing. As CEO Tom Shannon put it in his prepared remarks,
It was not a weakening consumer. As we have seen through every exogenous shock since I started this company, the consumer has a short memory and adjusts to new realities quickly.
The World Cup – the most-watched in American TV history – combined with the Knicks’ first NBA title in 53 years to pull June comps down to -7%, a cost CFO Bobby Lavan quantified as “at least $7 million in June, if not $10 million to $12 million” — Robert Lavan, President and Chief Financial Officer · 2026-08-27. The company’s August trends have already inflected positive, and management was careful to frame the disruption as a onetime event that does not repeat next summer.
Water Parks: The Coiled Spring Uncoils
The most consequential change was the expansion from 2 to 5 directly managed water parks, including the $45 million acquisition of Raging Waters in Los Angeles. Despite a cold, wet summer that pressured attendance, per-capita spending rose double digits and payroll was down mid-single digits, protecting economics. On a trailing twelve-month basis through July, the water parks produced $56 million of revenue and $22 million of EBITDA, up from $23 million and $11 million in fiscal 2025. Tom Shannon’s comment on season passes is telling: “We now view season pass in a completely different way than we did 4 months ago. 4 months ago, we viewed it really as a matter of pricing strategy and mix. We now view it as weather insurance.” — Thomas Shannon, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-27 This shift to selling season pass earlier is a direct response to the volatility that hurt Raging Waves in Illinois. The water park portfolio is now a meaningful earnings contributor, with FY27 guidance implying $28M-$33M of EBITDA from this segment alone.
Events and Marketing Reset
Events, a $40 million drawdown over the past three years, have turned positive for four straight months. The December backlog is now tracking up $10 million versus a $30 million decline last year. Management also acknowledged that the doubled marketing spend did not convert to intent, and has reset the approach. Bobby Lavan stated: “We need to convert the people who don't have intent to intent, and that's where the growth will come from.” — Robert Lavan, President and Chief Financial Officer · 2026-08-27 This is a sharp pivot from the prior quarter’s messaging, where the company was proudly injecting capital into marketing. As Lavan said in February 2026, “we are injecting capital into a system that has generally been starved of marketing” — Bobby Lavan, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-02-04. The new discipline is to hold every marketing dollar to a return threshold, or cut the budget as a percentage of revenue.
Capital Discipline and the FY27 Guide
CapEx has fallen from $194 million two years ago to $114 million last year to a planned $90 million in FY27. The company expects to finish the rebranding cycle by year-end and focus on asset sales to delever. Total revenue in the April quarter reached $342M, up 1% year-over-year, but the real story is the $340M-$360M EBITDA guidance for FY27, which implies modest growth as the World Cup and weather headwinds normalize. The market hasn’t fully rewarded this setup – the stock is down 30% over the past 90 days – but the company is confident in a 1% to 3% comp for FY27, with events and water parks providing the upside. As Tom Shannon reminded investors on the prior call, “having done this through 3 significant crises, the consumer always comes back and usually stronger than before the crisis” — Thomas Shannon, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and President · 2026-05-06. If the December quarter delivers, the market may finally recognize the transformation.