mBank's Growth Engine Fires on All Cylinders: Q2 Record Profit, Revenue Guidance Lifted

Poland's digital bank delivers 22% ROTCE, doubles down on organic scale, and still finds room to cut risk.

MBK.WA · Earnings Call · 2026-07-30

Record quarter, upward guidance

mBank delivered its strongest quarterly profit in history in Q2 2026, with net profit of PLN 1.1 billion and a return on tangible equity of nearly 22%. CEO Cezary Kocik opened the call with a clear message: “We increased market share across the board in loans and deposits of our retail and corporate segment.” — Cezary Kocik, CEO · 2026-07-30 This is not just a one-off beat; the bank is converting its new strategy into tangible momentum. The most consequential change is the revision in revenue guidance: CFO Pascal Ruhland now expects 2026 revenues to exceed 2025 levels, a material upgrade from the earlier expectation of slightly below. In his words, “We expect now revenues to outperform 2025 levels. We expect net interest margin to remain broadly stable around 3.5%.” — Marek Lusztyn, Head of Risk or Risk Management · 2026-07-30 That shift reflects a corner being turned in net interest income, which returned to growth quarter-on-quarter after a period of monetary easing.

Growth across the board

Volume growth is the engine. Loan growth was 13% year-on-year, with mortgage sales hitting a record PLN 10.7 billion in H1, up 74%. Pascal highlighted that deposits grew even faster, with total deposits up 21% year-on-year. This is exactly the kind of Investment products expansion that deepens customer relationships. The bank's digital processes allow it to absorb this volume without meaningful FTE growth, a key operating leverage point. “NII rose by around 3% quarter-on-quarter, supported by loan growth and disciplined deposit pricing.” — Pascal Ruhland, CFO · 2026-07-30 The net interest margin is expected to modestly increase in H2, to above 3.5%, assuming no further rate cuts.

The Swiss franc legacy fades

The other major tailwind is the continued decline in Swiss franc-related legal risk costs. Pascal described the trend as increasingly insignificant, and the active portfolio is shrinking. This is a company-specific catalyst that had previously constrained profitability and capital. In prior quarters, the bank had guided for a tighter NII outlook. As Pascal noted back in February, “we guided lower than 2025 due to the interest rate cuts, but it will be compensated partly by our volume gains.” — Pascal Ruhland, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-02-11 Now that compensation is fully visible. The cost of risk also remains remarkably low: guidance for the full year was cut to around 55 basis points, down from a higher figure. Cost of risk is a key metric for Polish banks, and mBank's 34 bps in H1 is well below its through-the-cycle assumptions.

Capital and returns

Capital remains a strength, with CET1 comfortably above regulatory requirements. The bank is exploring an AT1 issuance of EUR 200-300 million and, more importantly, has applied for an adjustment to its internal credit risk models that could reduce risk-weighted assets by mid-to-high single-digit billions, expected by Q1 2027. This would further bolster capital and support growth. The dividend payout of 30% of 2026 net profit is confirmed, with potential eligibility for up to 75% based on current criteria. This mix of growth and capital return is rare in the sector. The Q&A also revealed that the Q2 profit, after dividend, will add up to 50 bps of CET1.

We expect now revenues to outperform 2025 levels. We expect net interest margin to remain broadly stable around 3.5%. We expect the cost-to-income ratio to remain well below our strategic target of 35%.
Marek Lusztyn, Head of Risk or Risk Management · 2026-07-30

The prior transcript from October 2025 had Pascal cautioning that “we don't expect that 2026 will be a harsh increase of NII further” — Pascal Ruhland · 2025-10-30, but the balance sheet momentum has changed that equation. mBank is now showing that it can grow through the rate cycle, and the market is likely to re-rate the stock on this evidence. The only sour note is the elevated tax burden — more than PLN 850 million in taxes in Q2 alone — but even that is being absorbed without denting profitability. With a client base exceeding 6 million and total assets surpassing PLN 300 billion, mBank is on track to hit its 2030 ambition of at least 10% market share in all key products.