Macquarie's Foundational Shift: From Volatility to Private Markets and Deglobalization

A Record Year, But the Mix Has Changed

Macquarie's FY26 result was a headline grabber — net profit after tax of $4.847 billion, up 30% on the prior year, with a return on equity of 14% (up from 11%). But the more interesting story is where that growth came from. “we announced a result of $4.847 billion, which was up 30% on the prior year” — Shemara Wikramanayake, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-05-11 — and every operating group contributed. Yet the composition of earnings has shifted in ways that matter for the next decade.

Two keywords capture the transformation: private credit and performance fees. Macquarie Capital's private credit book grew to $27 billion, and MAM delivered a record $1.38 billion in performance fees, driven by MIP IV, MAF2, and the Align Data Center co-investment. This is not the same Macquarie that was once a pure play on commodity hedging and infrastructure fund management.

MAM: Divest to Ascend

The most decisive strategic move was the divestment of MAM's public investments businesses in North America and Europe. As Shemara put it in the prepared remarks: “that basically has freed up much more capital for the private markets business where we're actively growing that business” — Shemara Wikramanayake, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-05-11. This is a bet that the returns in private markets — infrastructure, real estate, and now credit — will outpace the relatively capital-light public funds business. The market seemed to endorse it: public investments were the product of a prior era; today the action is in private markets, where MAM raised over $20 billion in equity during the year and invested $25 billion.

The performance fee engine is also becoming more dependable. Frank Kwok noted that performance fees are booked only when it is "highly improbable that we will reverse them" — a conservative stance that gives investors confidence in the durability of these revenues. MIP IV, now seven years into its life, is beginning to realize, and the Align Data Center exit showed what the vintage funds can return.

MacCap: Credit + Equity Realizations

Macquarie Capital's profit rose 43% to $1.49 billion, with the private credit book now at $27 billion and a growing pipeline of equity realizations. The concentration issue — flagged by analysts in prior calls — was directly addressed. Shemara explained: “What has been constraining our growth is the concentration factor... we were reaching a level of concentration where we now are looking to bring third-party capital in” — Shemara Wikramanayake, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-05-11. That's a major shift: Macquarie is moving from balance-sheet growth to fee-based, fiduciary management of private credit.

The equity book is also maturing. Realizations in digital infrastructure (prime data centers) and energy infrastructure are coming through, and management expects to churn the book at a steadier pace. Michael Silverton's comment on deglobalization — “If you think about decarbonization, today you can probably think about that as energy solutions... The last one would be deglobalization” — Michael Silverton, Head of Macquarie Capital · 2026-05-11 — ties directly to the thematic of national resilience and data security, where Macquarie sees its next big opportunity.

The New Thematic: Compute and Deglobalization

Shemara's answer to Brian Johnson's question about the "next big thing" was telling. She cited demographics, technology, and specifically the demand for compute: “we know that the demand for compute is going to accelerate heavily, and that means infrastructure demand is going to step up a lot, whether it's data centers, whether it's energy, whether it's cooling” — Shemara Wikramanayake, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-05-11. This is a data center story writ large — and Macquarie is betting that its infrastructure muscle, combined with its CGM trading and BFS deposit franchise, will capture a disproportionate share of that capex wave.

The company's own keyword trajectory shows a marked upshift in themes like client activity and private credit book — a signal that the market is also re-rating the firm away from volatility-driven trading toward recurring, client-led income. The CGM result (up 49%) was partly due to the OnStream divestment, but the base business grew across commodities and financial markets, with 75% of revenue from existing clients — a sign of stickiness, not alpha trading.

over the last 18 months, we've put $4.2 billion of capital to work in the business. And that's in areas like in BFS, where we continue to grow our loan portfolios... in CGM... Macquarie Asset Management freed up capital... and Macquarie Capital, we're growing predominantly now our private credit books.

Capital Deployment and the Dividend

With surplus capital now at $9.3 billion (up from $7.6 billion at half-year), and a dividend increased to $7.00 per share (payout ratio 55%), Macquarie is signaling that it can fund organic growth while also returning cash. The board concluded the on-market buyback (no shares bought in 18 months) and instead used surplus for business investment — a clear signal that management sees more attractive ROE opportunities internally than in share repurchases.

The prior call reminder of Macquarie's history — "never waste a crisis" — still rings true. In a world of rising geopolitical and energy volatility, Macquarie's diversified platform (trading, lending, asset management, and principal finance) gives it optionality that few peers can match. The question is whether the shift to private credit and performance fees provides a more stable earnings base than the commodity swings of old.

The answer, based on this result, appears to be yes. The mix change is real, durable, and just getting underway. Private credit is now a core earnings pillar, not a satellite.