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Aurubis: Sulfuric Acid Shines, but Richmond's Ramp Drags

Q3 beats on sulfuric acid and strong metal results, but the Richmond EBITDA profile shifts out a year — guidance intact at the upper end.
NDA.DE · Earnings Call · 2026-08-06

Q3 Results: Sulfuric Acid to the Rescue

Aurubis reported a robust Q3 FY25-26, with operating EBT up 23% sequentially to EUR 149 million, and 9-month EBT up 31% to EUR 374 million. The standout driver was sulfuric acid, which is riding a historically tight market: "Against the backdrop of an exceptionally tight market environment, sulfuric acid was one of the most supportive earnings drivers during the third quarter" (CEO Toralf Haag). This offset continued pressure on concentrate TC/RCs. Management reiterated full-year guidance and now expects EBT at the upper end of the EUR 425-525 million range, with a constructive Q4 message: “we look into a good fourth quarter... should be in the similar ballpark as Q3.” — Steffen Hoffmann, CFO · 2026-08-06 The strong quarter was also supported by higher metal prices and healthy demand for copper products, reinforcing the multimetal model. Still, cash generation was hit by a temporary inventory buildup linked to the Pirdop tankhouse commissioning, pulling net cash flow to -EUR 28 million and free cash flow to -EUR 365 million. Management assured this is a working-capital timing issue that reverses by year-end.

Richmond's Longer Ramp: A Strategic Setback?

The most material change is the revised outlook for Aurubis Richmond. The greenfield smelter is taking longer to ramp up, with Phase 1 completion now in FY26-27 and Phase 2 in FY27-28. The expected EBITDA contribution is now below the prior EUR 170 million target, though still in triple-digit millions. CEO Toralf Haag attributed the delay to “some technical issues we have in Phase 1” — Toralf Haag, CEO · 2026-08-06 , and the mid-term earnings profile shifts out by a year. This is a notable contrast to the prior stance: in August 2025, Steffen Hoffmann reaffirmed “We would reiterate the EUR 170 million EBITDA target for the midterm. We feel comfortable with that.” — Steffen Hoffmann, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) · 2025-08-12 The market will scrutinize whether this is a one-off or a structural reset, though the company insists the U.S. remains an attractive growth region, potentially with government support for future expansions.

In light of the improved results after 9 months and our current planning, from today's perspective, we anticipate operating EBT to come in around the upper end of the forecast range for the '25-'26 fiscal year.

Toralf Haag, CEO · 2026-08-06

Cash Flow and Inventory: Temporary but Material

The inventory build for Pirdop and seasonality drove a sharp free cash flow negative, but management sees this as reversible: "We have a clear plan how to reduce working capital and deliver on the full year target" (CFO Steffen Hoffmann). Capex is also trending below budget, supporting the breakeven goal. While the Richmond news is a negative, the overall picture — strong metal prices, tight sulfuric acid, and confirmed guidance — keeps the equity story intact. The market is now focused on whether the Richmond ramp improves, and whether the TC/RC trough persists. With copper prices elevated and the global theme of market environment tightening, Aurubis remains a cyclical beneficiary, but execution risk on strategic projects has increased.