Nel Bids Farewell to Its CEO and Hello to the Defense Complex
Alkaline revenue collapses 91%, the backlog flips to PEM, and the hydrogen story quietly becomes a weapons-and-fuels story.
NEL.OL · Earnings Call · 2026-10-15
A Farewell Call With a Blunter Voice
Håkon Volldal used his final quarterly presentation as Nel's CEO to deliver something rarer than guidance: a post-mortem. Four years ago, he recalled, hydrogen was “almost like AI today. A buzzword and everybody wanted to get involved.” — Hakon Volldal, CEO · 2026-10-15 That is now gone, replaced by “pessimism, order cancellations, terminations.” — Hakon Volldal, CEO · 2026-10-15 The CFO's chair will stay warm; the CEO's will not. Analysts closed the Q&A by wishing him luck "in your new job" — an unusual confirmation that the person narrating the turnaround will not be the person held to it. The operating picture is stark. Group revenue fell to NOK 112 million, down 63% year-on-year, EBITDA landed at negative NOK 93 million, and cash stood at NOK 1.078 billion. The culprit was named explicitly: “Revenue decreased by 63% year-on-year, due to a soft quarter in our alkaline division.” — Hakon Volldal, CEO · 2026-10-15 Alkaline revenue collapsed 91%. PEM rose 65%. Order intake of NOK 253 million — up roughly 340% year-on-year — sounds heroic until you notice it is "predominantly or almost exclusively PEM orders." This is not a company growing; it is a company rotating.The Alkaline Hole and the PEM Bridge
The most concrete fact on the call was a composition shift management itself flagged: “It used to be predominantly alkaline. Now it's predominantly PEM.” — Hakon Volldal, CEO · 2026-10-15 The atmospheric alkaline platform that once defined Nel's large-project ambition is being cannibalized ahead of its replacement. The pressurized alkaline concept only started commercial customer conversations in the spring of 2026, and the CEO was candid that it needs "a few more months at least" before first adopters materialize. In the gap, the containerized PEM solution is doing all the work — approaching 30 units sold, with a Scottish integration partner (Hydrasun) added to keep European delivery local and avoid transatlantic freight. The volume math is unforgiving. Containerized units land in the 1-to-40 megawatt range; the large orders sit in 50-to-150 megawatts. Nel is surviving on the small end of a market while waiting for the large end to take final investment decisions. Volldal has been telling investors to expect a "turning point" and a climb "back up the ladder" since at least April. That refrain — repeated across three calls — is now being handed to a successor untested against it.From Hydrogen to the Defense Complex
What genuinely changed this quarter is the customer. Nel booked a USD 20 million order from Collins Aerospace for Navy stack oxygen systems on U.S., U.K. and French submarines — life support equipment, sold into an environment where "failure is not an option." It signed an MOU with Rheinmetall for decentralized synthetic fuels production: electrolyzers feeding a network of small plants that would make marine diesel and SAF for armed forces in a case of war. The pitch is no longer decarbonization; it is energy resilience against vulnerable refineries. The contrast with the company's own recent history is the story. On the April 2026 call, Volldal explained that Nel deliberately did not announce defense partnerships because “the capital markets only appreciate hard purchase orders. And anything else, whether it's a FEED study or a frame agreement or this and that just creates noise.” — Hakon Volldal, CEO · 2026-04-22 This quarter Nel announced a framework agreement, an MOU, and a deliberately anonymized USD 12 million containerized order from a "household name" U.S. tech company. The disclosure posture flipped — a company that once disdained noise is now generating it, because the hard orders alone are not enough to carry the narrative.What Management Stopped Talking About
Silence is evidence too. Across prior calls, the growth story rested on named partners — Reliance's India gigafactory licensing deal, Samsung E&A and Saipem as turnkey end customer channels. On this call they receded into a single backward-looking paragraph about "strong partnerships" to be "harvested." In Know Trend's own momentum history for Nel, Reliance and Samsung both registered as sharp decliners in recent quarters — the market's attention has already moved off them. The more uncomfortable disclosure came in the backlog. Analysts pressed on the at-risk bucket, and the CFO confirmed the HYDS project had deteriorated in full:That is the company telling investors its largest remaining alkaline reference point may not convert. About half of the alkaline backlog, the CFO added, isn't equipment at all — it's future milestone payments under a technology licensing agreement. And on the equipment Nel repossessed from a failed customer, the answer was that no new production has occurred since the start of last year.we have moved one of the 2 sites in the second quarter to 2 of the 2 sites at-risk. There is nothing more to be put into the at-risk backlog bucket... due to continued delays, we think it is prudent to signal to the market that this now may not come as a delivery in 2027.