National MI Hits $500B Milestone; Eyes a Housing Trough and a Return to ILN
Record Q2 results, a possible turn in problem housing markets, and a hint at re-engaging capital markets.
NMIH · Earnings Call · 2026-07-30
A Record Quarter and a Half-Trillion-Dollar Milestone
National MI capped another strong quarter with record financial results. The company generated $16 billion of new insurance written, reaching a record $227.1 billion primary insurance in force. Brad Shuster called out a major threshold:
We also surpassed $500 billion of insurance ever written during the quarter—a notable milestone that serves to highlight the consistent and significant success we've been delivering for so long.
Total revenue has followed a steady upward path, with Q1 2026 at $183M and the just-reported Q2 at $187.9M.
The record results were driven by solid premium growth, disciplined expenses, and strong credit experience. Adjusted net income reached $106 million ($1.38 per share) and return on equity came in at 15.9%.
Credit: Signs of a Turn in Problem Markets
Management remained constructive on the credit environment. Adam Pollitzer noted that while some Sun Belt, Mountain West, and West Coast markets have seen pressure, recent data suggest a possible trough: “House prices are setting records, obviously that's supportive for us.” — Adam Pollitzer, President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-07-30 At the same time, he cautioned that the company expects default trends to rise seasonally into Q3/Q4, consistent with past patterns. This nuanced outlook — bottoming home prices but expected seasonal normalization — is a subtle shift from the uniformly optimistic tone of previous quarters.
Reinsurance: A Possible Return to ILN
Aurora Swithenbank explained the company's current tilt toward traditional reinsurance but signaled they may re-engage the capital markets: “We like diversity in our sources of reinsurance. Recently, we've been more focused on traditional forms of reinsurance.” — Aurora Swithenbank, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-07-30 This echoes a theme discussed in prior calls, where the ILN market was highlighted as an important tool. The advantage of traditional reinsurance today is the ability to lock in forward flow coverage at a price certain for up to three years, while ILN offers diversity but requires warehousing risk. The company's flexible approach to risk transfer remains a core strength.
Legislative Tailwind and a Cautious Outlook
Regarding policy, Adam welcomed the bipartisan focus on housing: “I'd say overall, we've been encouraged by what I would term a renewed focus... on the housing market.” — Adam Pollitzer, President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-07-30 The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is seen as a long-term positive for supply and affordability, but not a near-term catalyst for the MI industry.
Capital Return and the Embedded Growth Engine
Capital return continued, with $31.4 million repurchased in Q2, bringing cumulative buybacks to $408 million since 2022. Management reiterated its commitment to a point of balance in pricing and risk selection, and the embedded growth engine remains intact — the company's share of NIW exceeds its share of industry insurance in force, providing a powerful tailwind.
In prior calls, management had repeatedly stressed credit performance and disciplined expenses. In Q1 2026, Adam said: “we're really encouraged by the credit performance of our portfolio.” — Adam Pollitzer, President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-04-30 And in February, Aurora noted: “we expect our core yield... to remain generally stable.” — Aurora Swithenbank, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-02-10 These themes persist today, but the new nuance is the potential bottom in housing prices and a possible return to the ILN market — both worth watching as the company heads into the typically weaker credit season in the second half.