OMA's Tariff Path and Cargo Surge: A Mix of Caution and Confidence

Despite flat traffic, OMA grows EBITDA and points to 99% tariff compliance by 2028 while cargo and new routes fuel diversification.

OMAB.MX · Earnings Call · 2026-07-28

Traffic: The Pause That Refreshes?

In the second quarter of 2026, OMA served 7.2 million passengers, a barely-there 0.4% increase year-over-year, while available seat capacity actually fell 0.3%. The story isn't in the headline number—it's in what OMA did with it. Facing a jet-fuel spike that has airlines pulling capacity, management expects “traffic is gonna be around flat to low single digits” — Ricardo Duenas Espriu, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) · 2026-07-28 for the full year. That's a slowdown from the 7%–8% growth seen in 2025, a reality acknowledged in the prior October call when Ricardo Dueñas projected 2026 in the “low to mid-single digits.” — Ricardo Duenas, CEO · 2025-10-24 The softness is real but contained, and it's not stopping the company from expanding its network—new routes to Paris, Madrid, and beyond are laying groundwork for the next cycle.

Tariffs: The Long Climb to 99%

The real margin story is pricing. Aeronautical revenues grew 3.9% despite flat traffic, driven by the mid-April tariff adjustment. OMA continues to walk the path toward full compliance with its maximum tariffs under the Master Development Program (MDP). This quarter, management reiterated the near-term goal:

This year, we are expecting around 93% to 95% compliance with the maximum tariff for the full year. And next year, we should see... probably we will be reaching the maximum tariff by the end of 2027, mid-2028.
Ricardo Duenas Espriu, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) · 2026-07-28

That's a consistent message—the same 93% target was floated in the February call—but the explicit timeline for reaching 99% by 2028 adds a concrete anchor. The key variable is jet fuel: if oil pressures persist, tariffs could take longer to pass through. Even so, the current 6.6% EBITDA growth and a 75.2% margin show that pricing power is already delivering.

Cargo and Connectivity: The Growth Engines

Beyond tariffs, diversification is becoming a genuine second engine. OMA Carga revenues surged 29%, buoyed by new client operations and higher-value cargo handling in Monterrey and Chihuahua. This isn't a one-off—management is actively expanding warehouses and systems to capture more of Mexico's export boom. Meanwhile, new route announcements keep coming: Aeroméxico's Paris service, launched in April, already generated over 14,000 passengers and has been upgraded to year-round status. Commercial revenue per passenger reached Ps. 66.4, up 6.3%, with non-aeronautical revenue climbing 9.8% overall. The company is also pressing forward on retail revenues, with new outlets and VIP lounges lifting capture rates.

Financial Strength and Sustainability

OMA's balance sheet remains sound. The company issued Ps. 3 billion in long-term notes, refinancing short-term debt and funding the MDP. Net debt-to-EBITDA stands at a comfortable 1.1x. Cost discipline is evident—payroll and contracted services rose, but operating leverage still expanded the margin. A notable highlight: OMA achieved an 88% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions per passenger, far exceeding the 58% sustainability target tied to its bonds. That's a PR win but also a financial one, as it may unlock favorable financing terms.

The prior call's focus on the Monterrey commercial expansion remains central: “Monterrey, we are anticipating to finish... the new commercial area of Monterrey” — Ricardo Duenas, CEO · 2026-02-24 by mid-2027. That, coupled with cargo growth and a clear tariff runway, suggests OMA is quietly building a more diversified, higher-margin business. The quarter wasn't flashy, but the strategic pieces are all moving in the right direction.