Orion's Strategic Pivot: ODM-212 Takes Center Stage as Nubeqa Royalty Peaks

Q2 2026 delivers record results, but the real narrative is the advancement of a potential best-in-class TEAD inhibitor pipeline.

ORNBV.HE · Earnings Call · 2026-07-17

Orion delivered a robust Q2 2026, with net sales up 25% to EUR 522 million and operating profit up 69% to EUR 177 million, lifting operating margin to 34%. The key driver remains Nubeqa, with royalties and product sales surging, and management raised full-year guidance, lifting the lower end of net sales to EUR 2.0-2.1 billion and EBIT to EUR 650-750 million. But beyond the numbers, the company is signaling a strategic pivot: the advancement of ODM-212, a potential best-in-class TEAD inhibitor, into Phase II and combination studies.

Nubeqa Royalty Hits Maximum Tier, but Growth Persists

The quarter saw Nubeqa royalties reach the highest royalty tier, a milestone that René Lindell explains: “Naturally, if you reach the maximum royalty tier already, it means that then the rest of the quarters of the year will be more driven by the market sales and not by reaching any new tiers.” — René Lindell · 2026-07-17 This implies future growth will be tied to underlying market expansion. Liisa also addressed the lumpiness in tablet deliveries: “There is no secrecy or nothing strange there. It's really as we've stated, we deliver tablets as based, of course, to Bayer's forecasts. Sometimes the deliveries and manufacturing campaigns just are timed in our manufacturing so that there is a bigger bunch of tablets sent out during one quarter.” — Liisa Hurme, CEO · 2026-07-17

ODM-212: The New Strategic Focus

The most notable shift is in the pipeline. ODM-212, a TEAD inhibitor, has moved from Phase I to Phase II for mesothelioma and EHE, and combination studies are underway. Liisa Hurme states: “Currently, we are not looking for a partner. We are running our studies, the phase II, by ourselves, and our plan is to run the phase III also by ourselves.” — Liisa Hurme, CEO · 2026-07-17 This commitment to internal development marks a clear departure from earlier quarters. In Q3 2025, Liisa noted: “The Phase I is almost completed. We are looking at the results, and we are basing our Phase II planning on those results.” — Liisa Hurme, CEO · 2025-10-28 Now they have initiated Phase II and combination trials. In Q1 2026, they were still in Phase Ib/2 dosing studies: “We are now carrying out Phase Ib/2. So we are even first trying different dosing with some of the combined drugs.” — Liisa Hurme, CEO · 2026-04-23 This quarter shows a clear acceleration, with orphan drug designations and the potential to overcome resistance. The combination study with standard-of-care drugs expands the addressable market beyond rare cancers.

Based on these results, which we actually announced in ASCO this year, we started a phase II study for mesothelioma and EHE, and this study is currently ongoing and expected to read out in late 2027. Based on this monotherapy study with ODM-212, we also initiated a combination study with some of the usually used drugs.
Liisa Hurme, CEO · 2026-07-17

Guidance Upgrade and U.S. Expansion

The guidance upgrade reflects confidence in H2 momentum. Additionally, the U.S. expansion is underway to prepare for ODM-212's launch. Liisa explains: “We are hiring and extending the commercial group with medical affairs and market access. These are single individuals, so we are not talking about any kind of significant change of the level of cost at this time.” — Liisa Hurme, CEO · 2026-07-17 The Nubeqa royalty continues to be a major profit driver, but its growth is transitioning from tier escalations to market expansion. As Orion leverages its Nubeqa cash flows to invest in proprietary oncology assets, the risk profile shifts. The success of ODM-212 is not guaranteed, but the company's deliberate strategy to maintain full control and proceed with Phase III internally signals conviction. This transition from a primarily royalty-driven story to one with a robust early-stage pipeline could be the key driver of re-rating over the next few years.