PostNL: Navigating Import Duties and Mail Reform with a New Cost-Savings Program

Resilient half-year results but volume decline from Asian e-commerce and a strategic pivot to Out-of-Home.

PNL.AS · Earnings Call · 2026-08-03

Resilient Half-Year, But Volume Pressures Persist

PostNL reported a resilient first half of 2026 with revenue of EUR 1.6 billion, almost flat year-over-year, and a slightly improved normalized EBIT. The free cash flow turned significantly better at EUR -17 million, reflecting proactive working capital management. However, the volume picture is more challenging: total E-commerce volumes fell 6.4%, with a 15% drop in international volumes driven by Asian web shops ahead of the July 1 import duty implementation. As CFO Linde Jansen noted, “we see the free cash flow coming in at EUR 17 million minus, which is a significant improvement compared with last year” — Linde Jansen, CFO · 2026-08-03. The company's volume-to-value strategy is paying off, with average price per parcel up 5%. Pim Berendsen emphasized, “These yield measures are gaining traction and cost savings momentum protects profitability even though we look at lower volumes than last year” — P. Berendsen, CEO · 2026-08-03. Yet the market growth has been weaker than expected, and the introduction of import duty has disrupted cross-border flows from Asian web shops.

Strategic Pivot: Cost Savings and Out-of-Home

To counter the profitability pressure, PostNL launched an additional EUR 75 million cost savings program, mainly in E-commerce, alongside a redefined Out-of-Home strategy. The CEO stated, “we have completely redefined our Out-of-Home strategy to strengthen the long-term competitive position on the Out-of-Home domain as well” — P. Berendsen, CEO · 2026-08-03. This includes scaling parcel lockers to 7,500 by 2031 and integrating merchant checkout with digital journeys. The cost savings give "a bit more room on the commercial side" to optimize the volume-to-value approach. The renegotiation of contracts with major Asian platforms has been a key focus. In Q&A, Pim confirmed that "those contracts have now been secured and we know against which conditions, which rates, which volume we expect to carry for them." “those contracts have now been secured and we know against which conditions, which rates, which volume we expect to carry for them” — P. Berendsen, CEO · 2026-08-03.

Mail Transformation and USO Uncertainty

The implementation of D+2 mail delivery was executed successfully, but the CEO stressed that this is insufficient for a sustainable mail service. He warned,

Without quick and decisive action in the political domain, it stays – a very, very uncertain period for our employees, our consumers that use Mail and customers alike.
P. Berendsen, CEO · 2026-08-03

The company continues to push for legal changes to allow a D+3 network and is seeking compensation for net costs.

Outlook: Confirmed, but Lower-End Revenue

PostNL confirmed its 2026 normalized EBIT outlook of EUR 40-70 million and free cash flow of EUR 0 to -30 million, but acknowledged revenue growth will likely be at the lower end of the 5-7% range given the volume trends. The de minimis threshold changes and import duties could still have an impact, though the company expects limited structural harm in the long term. Prior quarters have consistently highlighted the challenges of yield management and volume decline. In early 2025, Pim noted, “we do expect that the yield measures aimed at our biggest clients will most likely also result in some loss of volume” — Pim Berendsen, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) · 2025-02-24. By late 2025, Linde observed that "what you see overall is that with the yield measures which we are taking, so we say, and we see that, that's gradually coming in." “What you see overall is that with the yield measures which we are taking, so we say, and we see that, that's gradually coming in.” — Linde Jansen, Executive, presenting Q3 2025 results · 2025-11-03 The current results show those measures are finally bearing fruit, but the new cost savings program and structural out-of-home push represent a decisive shift.