Changing of the Guard: RBI's Strategic Reshuffle and the EUR 3.15bn Rasperia Bet
Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) enters a new era under CEO Michael Höllerer, who took the helm with a clear mandate to revive profitability and growth. His first strategic review, slated for a Capital Markets Day in February, targets a fundamental repositioning. "“I won't mince my words. This is not enough.” — Michael Höllerer · 2026-07-31" Höllerer said of the bank's 13% core ROE, underscoring the urgency. After four years of legacy issues—Russia-related write-downs and Polish FX litigation—the bank sees a clean slate, with strong capital and a healthy balance sheet ready for expansion.
The Rasperia Claim: A Potential Windfall
The most dramatic development is the filing of a EUR 3.15 billion damages claim against Rasperia in Vienna, seeking recovery of the EUR 2.4 billion seized in Russia plus interest and lost profits. “First of all, we are confident that we will prevail in court, and we expect a favorable outcome.” — Michael Höllerer · 2026-07-31 Management expects proceeds within 6–12 months, contingent on whether Rasperia contests the claim in Austria. This Rasperia claim is a step toward extracting trapped equity, and a favorable ruling could add roughly 200 basis points to CET1—transforming the headline capital ratio.
M&A Momentum and Footprint
The bank's successful voluntary takeover of Addiko (56.18% participation) and the pending BBVA Garanti Romania acquisition (expected to close in early October) are reshaping the CEE footprint. exit from Russia remains a stated priority, with Höllerer affirming, "We need to keep trying, however, and we will try harder." The strategic review will also address product streamlining and AI transformation across all subsidiaries.
Guidance and Profitability
Financially, RBI raised its NII guidance to EUR 4.4–4.5 billion, with fees expected near EUR 2.2 billion. NIM is expected to hold steady: "“we expect NIM to remain stable for the remainder of the year at 2.3%.” — Kamila Makhmudova, CFO or Finance Executive · 2026-07-31" Underlying profitability—excluding Russia and Poland—stands above 12.5%, but the bank aspires to more. Asset margin pressure, especially in retail, is acknowledged, but volume growth is the offsetting driver.
Risk and Overlay Philosophy
Risk costs remain benign, with the bank releasing overlays as feared events fail to materialize. "“it's a matter of principle and that we only have overlays as a last resort.” — Hannes Mosenbacher, Risk Officer or Head of Risk · 2026-07-31" The geopolitical overlay for Ukraine stays, but other overlays may be released over the next 2–3 quarters. This disciplined approach was echoed in prior quarters, when Hannes Mosenbacher noted, "the 35 basis points is the guidance what we may use for the regular business."
Contrast and Outlook
The contrast with the prior year is stark. In January, then-CEO Johann Strobl downplayed competition: "“You are fully right. If the pie grows by 7%, then I should not be concerned at all.” — Johann Strobl, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-01-30" Now, with a new CEO, a potential legal windfall, and M&A integration ahead, the market is recalibrating RBI's risk profile. The bank guides to a 14.3% CET1 at year-end, but Rasperia proceeds could lift that further, making the February Capital Markets Day a pivotal catalyst.