SKF's Quantum Leap: Humanoids, Tariff Refunds, and a Spin-Off on Track
AB SKF rides a strong quarter on margin expansion and a bold bet on humanoid bearings, while the automotive separation nears its final act.
SKF-A.ST · Earnings Call · 2026-07-17
The second quarter of 2026 saw AB SKF deliver a steady performance in a mixed macroeconomic environment. As CEO Rickard Gustafson put it, “we are in the positive organic growth territory” — Rickard Gustafson, CEO · 2026-07-17, with organic growth of 1.4% and an adjusted operating margin of 13.9%, up from 13.3% a year ago. The Specialized Industrial Solutions segment was the standout, growing over 8% with significant margin expansion, driven by aerospace, magnetics, and a thriving aftermarket. Meanwhile, the automotive segment remained under pressure, declining 1.4%, though margins improved to 5.7% on the back of separation-related efficiency gains.
**Humanoids: A Bold Bet on the Next Act**
The most striking development was the announcement of a venture with Leaderdrive, a Chinese manufacturer of Harmonic Drives and other robotic precision components. As CEO Rickard Gustafson explained:
The venture, in which SKF holds 60% ownership, will focus on producing Harmonic Drive components, including cross roller and flexible bearings, which are essential for humanoid robots. According to management, a humanoid contains over 120 bearings, and the venture will cover roughly 80% of the needed assortment. Gustafson was candid about the strategic flexibility, stating, “The venture will be a key supplier to Leaderdrive, it will not be in exclusivity. We will also have the ability to form partnership with others, we are free to develop other ventures outside of China as well.” — Rickard Gustafson, CEO · 2026-07-17 This venture positions SKF at the intersection of the booming data centers and automation themes, though the company is careful to frame it as an early-stage opportunity. The humanoid pivot is a clear strategic departure from the traditional bearing business, reflecting a broader industrial trend toward automation and AI-driven manufacturing. **Tariffs, Refunds, and the Separation Tug-of-War** The quarter also saw the financial impact of tariff reclaims. CFO Susanne Larsson noted, “We will not quantify it, but we are stating that the majority of the IEEPA tariff refunds have been received during the second quarter.” — Rickard Gustafson, CEO · 2026-07-17 This created a slight positive profit impact, though the cash drag will hit in Q3 as customer payments follow. The company also continued its right sizing program, delivering SEK 350 million in benefits during the quarter, slightly ahead of expectations. The program, combined with some support production ahead of the automotive separation, helped offset negative synergies and inflation. As Susanne noted, the support production will continue in H2, but with limited margin benefit. This is a continuation of the tariff mitigation strategy articulated in prior quarters. In the 2026-04-21 call, Gustafson had stated, “Since this tariff situation started a year ago, we have been able through active price and mix actions being able to offset and mitigate the vast majority of the impact.” — Rickard Gustafson, CEO · 2026-04-21 The current quarter shows that this capability remains intact, though the focus has shifted to refunds and their timing. The automotive separation remains on track for Q4, with Kerstin Enochsson appointed CEO of the new entity. The company is also seeing tangible benefits from operating as a leaner, more focused organization, exemplified by AI-based automation that reduced a four-hour design process to less than four minutes. **The Long View: A Pure-Play Industrial Future** Despite the mixed demand, SKF guided for somewhat stronger organic growth in Q3, driven by improving OEM conditions, particularly in the Americas. Full-year tax guidance was raised to 29% from 28%, and CapEx guidance was lowered by SEK 1 billion to SEK 4 billion, reflecting further efficiency gains. The quarter ended with a stable balance sheet, net debt of SEK 7.3 billion, and adjusted ROCE improving to 14.5%. The company remains confident in its ability to deliver on its mid-term targets. This confidence is underpinned by a structural shift in pricing power, as evidenced by a comparison to the 2025-10-29 call, where management noted “When it comes to Americas, it is price mix that drives the growth, and we are actually still in negative volume territory in Americas.” — Rickard Gustafson, Chief Executive Officer · 2025-10-29 Now, with volumes picking up in certain verticals, the price discipline built over the past year is becoming a powerful tailwind.The venture will provide a fast track for SKF into this new exciting growth area.