Thule’s Second Half: Tariff Refunds and Champion Candidates Set the Pace
Peak-season growth and record margins mask a cautious consumer, but a one-off refund and new-category momentum line up an intriguing H2.
THULE.ST · Earnings Call · 2026-07-20
A Second Quarter of Green, but Cautious Winds
Thule Group’s Q2 2026 results showed organic growth of 2.5% and an adjusted EBIT margin of 22.8%, up 1.2 percentage points year on year, with the company calling out an all-time-high gross margin of 47.3%. CEO Mattias Ankarberg declared, “It's nice to see that the positive development that we saw in Q1 continues also in the second quarter, which is our peak season and our biggest quarter.” — Mattias Ankarberg, Chief Executive Officer and President · 2026-07-20 Yet the tone was tempered by a still-cautious consumer, particularly in North America, where organic sales fell 2% despite D2C strength. The company is increasingly leaning on its champion categories — the global-leading product areas that have driven growth through innovation — while the broader market remains under pressure from the Middle East conflict and raw material inflation.
Tariff Refunds: The Unseen Swing for Q3
A key new theme this quarter is the anticipated tariff refund. Thule incurred higher tariff costs in 2025, and while Q2 2026 showed no refunds, the company expects about $5 million (SEK 50 million) to flow back in Q3. CFO Toby Lawton was explicit that
there is no impact in this result from any tariff refunds. So there's no impact in the second quarter in any way of tariff refunds.
This aligns Thule with a broad global trend — tariff refund has become a recurring theme across multiple reporters this season, and Thule appears to be riding that wave. The company also plans a 2.5% price increase from August 1, intended to offset raw material cost increases, which are now starting to bite. Together, the refund and price increases are expected to more than offset the raw-material headwind in Q3, as Mattias explained: “So all in all, those 3 factors should net be positive for us in Q3. And that, that would sort of support the more longer-term agenda.” — Mattias Ankarberg, Chief Executive Officer and President · 2026-07-20 This is a fresh twist for Thule — prior quarters focused on tariff cost pass-through, not refunds.
Champion Candidates and the Curli Bolus
Growth continues to be powered by the smaller but fast-scaling “champion candidates” within the product area Active with Kids & Dogs, which grew 8% organically in Q2. All‑terrain strollers, dog transportation, and child car seats are the three main drivers, with the company now adding the premium dog-harness maker curli to the portfolio. “We have acquired a Swiss company called curli… and it's really the global market‑leading position in premium dog harnesses, particularly for smaller dogs,” said Mattias. The launch of harnesses for larger dogs is slated for fall, extending the category’s reach. This built on the prior year’s momentum—back in early 2026, Mattias highlighted new categories as the primary growth engine: “Look at our reported categories, the Active with Kids & Dogs categories where we've been quite clear that these are the categories driving the growth for us this year.” — Mattias Ankarberg, CEO and President · 2026-02-10 The company is also pulling levers on cost: technology platforms—harmonizing components across bike carriers and other products—are yielding supply‑chain efficiencies, a theme first articulated in late 2025. As Mattias put it then, “If we can harmonize those components across the product portfolio, then… we have production efficiencies.” — Mattias Ankarberg, CEO · 2025-10-22 These efforts, combined with a tighter SG&A, are what allowed margins to expand even as volumes remain lackluster.
North America: Green Shoots but No Reorder Yet
The U.S. remains the weak spot, but there are signs of inflection. D2C sales grew “well into double digits” in Q2, and sell‑through at major retail partners was positive—yet retailers continue to destock, so orders haven’t caught up. Mattias noted: “So in a way, it's a positive sign that it's a clear sort of improvement in the consumer demand or the sell‑through of Thule products in the U.S. in this quarter, but it has not yet materialized in a positive organic growth number for us.” — Mattias Ankarberg, Chief Executive Officer and President · 2026-07-20 This mirrors the broader consumer sentiment issues and the Middle East conflict, which are also affecting RV registrations. Still, Thule’s product innovation—new North America‑specific bike carriers and pickup‑truck racks—are regaining share. The company’s reliance on retail partners for the vast majority of its U.S. sales is a double‑edged sword; when retailers hold back, Thule feels it, but the underlying sell‑through data suggests the tide may be turning.
Looking ahead, Thule’s H2 hinges on three moving parts: the tariff refund, the price increase, and raw‑material costs. The company’s ability to navigate these—while keeping champion‑category innovation humming—will determine whether the margin expansion holds. The stock might not have moved much, but the operating narrative has shifted toward a far more nuanced, refund‑dependent quarter.