WillScot's Leasing Revenue Inflection: A Turnaround Led by Large Projects and Win Rates

The Long-Awaited Inflection

WillScot Holdings (WSC) delivered a decisive turning point in its second-quarter 2026 earnings report. After several quarters of declining leasing revenue, the company reported a 2% year-over-year increase in leasing revenue, reaching approximately $450 million. Total revenue rose 4% to $612 million, with leasing and services revenue up 6%. The company's confidence is reflected in a raised full-year outlook: revenue now expected at ~$2.3 billion (up $50 million) and adjusted EBITDA at ~$920 million. As CFO Matt Jacobsen stated, “Leasing revenue increased 2% year-over-year to approximately $450 million, marking an important milestone as we continue to progress towards broader leasing revenue growth across the portfolio.” — Matt Jacobsen, Chief Financial Officer · 2026-08-06

The inflection was driven by a 16% surge in modular activations, though the World Cup contributed meaningfully. Excluding the tournament's ~2,000 units, activations still grew about 10% year-over-year, according to CEO Tim Boswell. This underlying strength gives management confidence that the growth is sustainable. In fact, Boswell noted that “Total revenue of $612 million was up 4% year-over-year in the quarter, driven by leasing and services revenue growth of 6%. Within that, delivery and installation revenue increased by over 25%.” — Tim Boswell, President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-06

Win Rates and Data Centers

The company's success is increasingly tied to large, complex projects, which is translating into higher win rates. Boswell explained during the Q&A: “as project complexity goes up, our win rates have gone up.” — Tim Boswell, President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-06 This is a notable shift from prior quarters when the company was more cautious about the local market. In May, Boswell had said, “we haven't assumed any real improvement in local market activity, nor have we assumed any continued erosion of that activity.” — Timothy Boswell, President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-05-07 Now the enterprise account revenue is up 21%, and data centers represent about a quarter of the large/mega project pipeline. The company is clearly leveraging its data centers vertical strength, which had been flagged as a growth area.

This pivot to larger projects is reflected in the rising win rate and a growing modular activations trend. The company is also expanding its value-added offerings, with newer products like climate-controlled storage and perimeter solutions expected to grow at a ~20% exit rate.

Investing for 2027

Perhaps the most strategic decision is the aggressive increase in net CapEx to approximately $375 million, up from the prior guidance, to support a pipeline extending into 2027. The company is investing in new units and refurbishment of highly utilized fleet, signaling strong conviction in large-project demand. As Matt Jacobsen put it,

We have increased our adjusted EBITDA outlook to approximately $920 million, which reflects the continued upfront investments in cost of leasing and transfer costs to support the opportunities that we're seeing, but limits the upfront flow through to EBITDA.

Margins in Q2 compressed by 500 basis points year-over-year, but management expects sequential expansion as activation costs moderate and lease revenue compounds. The company is also rolling out a route optimization and dispatch software platform, which could further lift margins in 2027.

Context and Outlook

WillScot's stock, while still well below its 2023 peak, has rallied notably in the past 90 days, up about 19% despite a recent 23% pullback from its June high. The fundamentals are turning: Total revenue has been on a downward trend since the 2022 peak, but the Q2 2026 bounce to $612M suggests a bottom. The company is also maintaining a healthy balance sheet with ~$1.5 billion in liquidity. While the local market remains soft, the company's focus on leasing revenue growth and large projects is paying off. The World Cup added a temporary boost, but the underlying demand appears durable, supported by a 13% increase in modular pending orders. As Boswell said, “It's been several years since we've seen these activity levels, and based on the improvements to the business over that period, we're extremely well positioned to execute and win in this environment.” — Tim Boswell, President and Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-06