XP's New CFO Arrives Amid Credit Spread Turmoil and a Strategic Pivot to Daily Liquidity
Robust corporate growth offsets mark-to-market pain; AI adviser and SMB platform signal next growth phase.
XP · Earnings Call · 2026-08-17
A Quarter of Two Halves
XP Inc. reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 17, with gross revenue up 8% year-over-year to BRL 5.1 billion and net income of BRL 1.4 billion. But the headline is the tension between a resilient core business and the lingering effects of the credit spread widening that first hit in Q1. New CFO Alejo Viviani joined just after "the biggest expert in your history," as CEO Thiago Maffra put it, and he wasted no time outlining a capital return plan that includes canceling 2.3% of outstanding shares. The market's focus, however, is on the credit spread turmoil and the company's changing asset mix. In the Q&A, Maffra confirmed that the mark-to-market hit totaled roughly BRL 420 million in the first half, with about BRL 150-160 million in the second quarter alone. “So yes, your math is right. It was around $420 million I would say it was below BRL 300 million on the first quarter, and the other part on the second.” — Thiago Maffra, Executive (likely CEO or senior management) · 2026-08-17 The pain was concentrated in the primary market and the firm's warehousing book, as the debt capital markets (DCM) essentially shut down in Q2. "We have done less in a quarter than we do in a month," Maffra said, comparing the low volume of new fixed-income offerings.Underlying Strength, Mixed Signals
Beneath the noise, retail revenues grew 8% year-over-year, and excluding the mark-to-market effect, the first half would have grown 15%. Equities revenue rose 11% despite lower ADTV, while the funds platform grew 22%. The Corporate segment was the standout: revenues grew 117% year-over-year, driven by derivatives, FX, and credit cross-selling. Maffra said this level is now "a normal level looking forward," and he expects Q3 to remain strong. Yet the fixed-income mix is shifting dramatically. Daily liquidity product now represents roughly 70% of fixed-income sales, up from 30% a year ago. Maffra explained the double hit: "When you sell a daily liquid CG or kind of products, you get a daily accrual on a very low take rate. So we have 2 effects here." This mix drag explains why the take rate has compressed even as volumes grow. Management believes they are "close to the turning point," but the shift has not yet reversed.New Growth Levers: AI and SMBs
Two new initiatives stand out. XP is about to launch an AI-powered adviser for its digital-retail segment in September. Maffra said, “We are about to launch an AI adviser I would say, this month or beginning of next month.” — Thiago Maffra, Executive (likely CEO or senior management) · 2026-08-17 This is part of a broader push to democratize wealth planning and increase client engagement in the mass-affluent tier. Additionally, the company is launching an SMB platform on September 1, with cards, acquiring, and credit — but always with collateral. "It is always with collateral," Maffra stressed, “So not big risks, not clean. So we are going to go step by step here.” — Thiago Maffra, Executive (likely CEO or senior management) · 2026-08-17 These moves are natural extensions of the ecosystem strategy that has been unfolding since 2019, but they represent a fresh commitment to serving smaller businesses and using AI to lower cost-to-serve. The new CFO’s arrival is also a signal. In the prior quarter, the transition was positioned as a search for more banking and credit expertise. “It was an opportunity to bring someone with the background that we were looking for,” — Thiago Maffra, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) · 2026-05-18 Maffra said in May. Now Viviani is on board, and the capital return framework is aggressive: with the Basel ratio at 20.3% versus the 16-19% target, XP plans to distribute more than 50% of net income. “I think for now, more than half than what announced, actually, BRL 2 billion will be is buybacks and BRL 500 million are dividends.” — Victor Mansur, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) · 2026-05-18 The company has already announced BRL 2.5 billion in capital distribution in 2026, and the share cancellation reinforces that commitment.Outlook: Normalization Is the Watchword
Management remains confident in double-digit growth for the full year, with normalization expected in the fixed-income pipeline and primary markets. The new business lines, including SMB and AI tools, are designed to broaden the revenue base, while the Basel ratio policy provides a cushion. The company is executing a strategy that combines conservative credit underwriting with aggressive capital returns — a balancing act that will be tested as the market stabilizes. For now, XP appears to be navigating a difficult period with discipline, but the proof will be in the second half, when seasonality and DCM activity are expected to pick up.This quarter’s narrative is about resilience and strategic evolution. The mark-to-market impact is real but non-cash, and the underlying franchise — the adviser network, the client assets, the corporate franchise — continues to compound. The AI adviser and SMB platform are early bets that could reshape the growth trajectory, but they are still in the launch phase. Investors will be watching whether the recovery in primary markets and the stabilization of credit spreads validate management’s confidence.Additionally, I would also like to announce that we will be canceling approximately 11.8 million, 2.3% of our total outstanding shares.